This is a study of using TiTTs on the 27 September 2022. We know that momentum turns before trend and hence momentum is more sensitive to slight shift in the market trend. The highest probability in trading is when Trend and Momentum are in alignment.
On this trading day, the market was volatile as you can see below. Entry #1 is when we have the dots in alignment. The /RTY was in an upTrend for about 7 candles before pulling back. Our standard technique of exit would be when candle closed below the 8 EMA and 21 EMA. In this case, there was a big Yellow candle and we would have exited at Exit #2 at about breakeven.
With hindsight, if we exited the trade at Exit #1, we would have exited profitably. Hence trading can be a black art at time because that would have broken our standard rules. That would be an aggressive exit which could be suitable for a volatile market which can change momentum rather quickly.
Chart 1: 27 September 2022 – 1 minute chart showing the Entry points and also the possible Exit points
Chart 1 above shows the Entry #1 and the Exit #1 and Exit #2. Entry # 3 is a good entry but there is a sharp pullback that is likely to shake out our trade. This happens when the market is volatile and right now, the overall market is rather bearish. Following our rules of keeping in the trade as long as the Trend is in place, we would exit when there is no Trend and the momentum has changed.
Chart 2: 27 September 2022 – 1 minute chart showing the Entry points and also the possible Exit points
Chart 2 above shows Entry #1. When there was a previous crossing of the 8 EMA crossing below the 21 EMA and then the candle closed below the 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 55 SMA, it is a signal to enter and Short Sell the /RTY. In this instance, we have to be disciplined and as long as the candle remained RED, we hold on to the trade. The RED candle means that the downTrend is intact. We exit the trade at Exit #1.
The perfect entry would have been at about 1692.2 and the perfect exit would been at 1662.7. That is a gain of 29.5. That kind of trade is what every trader dreams of as it boost the P/L. Scalping in the long term is not sustainable and more that likely, is detrimental to the P/L.
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