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TiTTs – Trading in volatile market

This is a study of using TiTTs on the 27 September 2022. We know that momentum turns before trend and hence momentum is more sensitive to slight shift in the market trend. The highest probability in trading is when Trend and Momentum are in alignment.

On this trading day, the market was volatile as you can see below. Entry #1 is when we have the dots in alignment. The /RTY was in an upTrend for about 7 candles before pulling back. Our standard technique of exit would be when candle closed below the 8 EMA and 21 EMA. In this case, there was a big Yellow candle and we would have exited at Exit #2 at about breakeven.

With hindsight, if we exited the trade at Exit #1, we would have exited profitably. Hence trading can be a black art at time because that would have broken our standard rules. That would be an aggressive exit which could be suitable for a volatile market which can change momentum rather quickly.

Chart 1: 27 September 2022 – 1 minute chart showing the Entry points and also the possible Exit points

Chart 1 above shows the Entry #1 and the Exit #1 and Exit #2. Entry # 3 is a good entry but there is a sharp pullback that is likely to shake out our trade. This happens when the market is volatile and right now, the overall market is rather bearish. Following our rules of keeping in the trade as long as the Trend is in place, we would exit when there is no Trend and the momentum has changed.

Chart 2: 27 September 2022 – 1 minute chart showing the Entry points and also the possible Exit points

Chart 2 above shows Entry #1. When there was a previous crossing of the 8 EMA crossing below the 21 EMA and then the candle closed below the 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 55 SMA, it is a signal to enter and Short Sell the /RTY. In this instance, we have to be disciplined and as long as the candle remained RED, we hold on to the trade. The RED candle means that the downTrend is intact. We exit the trade at Exit #1.

The perfect entry would have been at about 1692.2 and the perfect exit would been at 1662.7. That is a gain of 29.5. That kind of trade is what every trader dreams of as it boost the P/L. Scalping in the long term is not sustainable and more that likely, is detrimental to the P/L.

26 September 2022 – Bulls appearing

Chart 1: Overall market analysis of the indices, oil, gold, bond and US dollar index

Summary (The Week Ahead)
$DJTDownTrend and downward momentum. Oversold condition.
/YM DownTrend and downward momentum.
/RTYDownTrend and downward momentum.
/NQDownTrend and downward momentum.
/ESDownTrend and downward momentum.

The indices are trending downward and momentum is downward.

/CLDownTrend and downward momentum.
/GCDownTrend and downward momentum.
/ZBDownTrend and downward momentum.
HYGDownTrend and downward momentum.
DBCDownTrend and downward momentum.

Daily Tight Squeezes (The Week Ahead)

Daily Squeezes (The Week Ahead)
/BTC, USD/JPY

Preliminary Squeezes (The Week Ahead)
/CL

Market Internals

Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Extremely Bearish.
Put/Call ratio – 0.951
Market Breadth – below threshold line showing more losers than gainers.
Volume Acc/Dis – below threshold line showing distribution overall.
Vix – 32.259

Market internals are Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors

Ranking the Strength of the S&P 500 ETFs over 12 month period

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLY, XLU, XLE, XLP, XLV, XLF, XLK, XLB, XLI and XLC.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLU, XLE, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLB and XLC.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade Stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.

Definitions
Bullish bias – Candle Close is above 55 SMA and 8 EMA or 21 EMA and 8 EMA is above 21 EMA
Bullish – Candle Close is above 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 55 SMA and 8 EMA is above 21 EMA
Bearish bias – Candle Close is below 55 SMA and 8 EMA or 21 EMA and 8 EMA is below 21 EMA
Bearish – Candle Close is below 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 55 SMA and 8 EMA is below 21 EMA

TiTTs – Using Trend and/or Momentum

This is a study of using TiTTs3 on the 26 September 2022. We know that momentum turns before trend and hence momentum is more sensitive to slight shift in the market. The highest probability in trading is when Trend and Momentum are in alignment.

For aggressive trading, we want to get in early and hence momentum is used. But for longer term trade, holding on to a trade using the Trend candles is preferred more as this will result in holding on longer in a Trend whereas the momentum can change within this trend. Only when the momentum and Trend shift together, then we have to get out of the trade.

Chart 1: 26 September 2022 – 1 minute chart showing the Entry points and also the possible Exit points

Chart 1 above shows the Green candles trending upwards but with frequent shifts in the momentum. Currently, the market is bearish and hence bullish moves tend to be Sold into by the bears. There was a shift in the trend and the candles turned Yellow and the momentum dots turned White. Since there is an alignment, we can take the trade although it is a slightly more aggressive trade. Subsequently the candles turned Red and the Trend dots turned White. Also the momentum dots turned White.

Chart 2: 26 September 2022 – 1 minute chart showing the Entry points and also the possible Exit points

Chart 2 above shows the $TICK and $ADD market internals. These indicators are supplementary to the Trend and Momentum dots and are for reference only. They do give useful information on what the market is doing internally.

In the $TICK chart, when the white line is below zero, then the market is generally bearish and when it is above zero, it is bullish. When the $TICK is above the white line and the white line is above zero, then the market is rallying strongly in an UpTrend. When the $TICK is above the white line and the white line is below zero, then the market is trying to recover from a likely DownTrend.

In the $ADD chart, we have the vertical lines to show when the number of Advancers to Decliners have shifted upward or downward. This coincides with the indices shifting along with it. All these information are useful information.

23 September 2022 – A Down week

Chart 1: Weekly chart of the S&P 500 sectors

Summary (3-Day Chart)
$DJT – DownTrend
with downward momentum.
/YM – DownTrend with downward momentum.
/RTY – DownTrend with downward momentum.
/NQDownTrend with downward momentum.
/ESDownTrend with downward momentum.

/CLDownTrend with downward momentum.
/GCDownTrend with downward momentum.
/ZBDownTrend with downward momentum.
HYGDownTrend with downward momentum.
DBCDownTrend with downward momentum.

Summary (Daily Chart)
$DJTDownTrend with downward momentum.
/YMDownTrend with downward momentum.
/RTYDownTrend with downward momentum.
/NQDownTrend with downward momentum.
/ESDownTrend with downward momentum.

$DXYUpTrend with upward momentum.
EUR/USDDownTrend with upward momentum.
USD/JPYUpTrend with neutral momentum.

US Dollar is in an uptrend.

Tight Squeezes

Squeezes (Daily)
/BTC

Preliminary Squeezes (Daily)
$DXY, /CL, EUR/USD, USD/JPY

Market Internals

Market Internals (Daily Chart)
Market Sentiment – Extremely Bearish.
Put/Call ratio – 0.8
Market Breadth – below the signal line showing more losers than gainers.
Volume Acc/Dis – below the signal line showing distribution.
Vix – 29.92

Market Internals are signaling Bearishness.

On a 3-monthly period, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLU, XLE, XLY, XLF, XLV, XLP, XLB, XLI, XLK and XLC.

On a 12-monthly period, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLU, XLE, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLK and XLC.

Table 1: Tabulation of the S&P 500 Sectors

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade Stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.

TiTTs – Volatility: When not to trade

This is a study of using TiTTs3 on the 23 September 2022. In this trade, we study the conditions when NOT to trade. That is even more important where there are conditions when there are volatility, it is best not to trade as the probability of making any money is low.

In Chart 1 below, when the market Opened at 9:30 am, there was volatility and it settled into a downtrend. The candles are RED showing the downtrend. Also the dots below the chart are White. It is important that the Red candles are matched to the White momentum dots. When the momentum dots changed to Green dots, it is definitely time to be out of the trade. When the momentum dots are left Empty, we can still hold on to the trade if one wished to.

Chart 1: 23 September 2022 – 1 minute chart showing the Entry points and also the possible Exit points

Chart 1 above shows the Red candles trending downwards and also there was the White dots showing that the momentum is downward.

The End of the Trend is marked when the momentum dots turned Green. Eventualy, the candles hit the ATR Trailing StopLoss and it switched from above the candles to below the candles but still remaining below the 55 SMA. When this happens, we can expect more volatility and hence it is important not to be in aa trade. We only get back into a trade when there is an alignment of the Trend and Momentum dots.

When the Momentum dots changed from White to Green dots, there is a change in the momentum. Typically, the Momentum dots will changed from White dots to no dots and then Green dots. There is a slow transition in the change of the colour of the dots.

22 September 2022 – Carry on downward

Chart 1: Overall market analysis of the indices, oil, gold, bond and US dollar index

Definitions
Bullish bias – Candle Close is above 55 SMA and 8 EMA or 21 EMA and 8 EMA is above 21 EMA
Bullish – Candle Close is above 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 55 SMA and 8 EMA is above 21 EMA
Bearish bias – Candle Close is below 55 SMA and 8 EMA or 21 EMA and 8 EMA is below 21 EMA
Bearish – Candle Close is below 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 55 SMA and 8 EMA is below 21 EMA

Summary (The Week Ahead)
$DJTDownTrend and downward momentum.
/YM DownTrend and downward momentum.
/RTYDownTrend and downward momentum.
/NQDownTrend and downward momentum.
/ESDownTrend and downward momentum.

The indices are trending downward and momentum is downward.

/CLDownTrend and downward momentum.
/GCDownTrend and Neutral momentum.
/ZBDownTrend and downward momentum.
HYGDownTrend and downward momentum.
DBCDownTrend and downward momentum.

Daily Tight Squeezes (The Week Ahead)

Daily Squeezes (The Week Ahead)
$DXY, /BTC, EUR/USD

Preliminary Squeezes (The Week Ahead)
/CL, /GC, USD/JPY

Market Internals

Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Extremely Bearish.
Put/Call ratio – 0.953
Market Breadth – below threshold line showing more losers than gainers. This is distribution.
Volume Acc/Dis – below threshold line showing distribution overall. Bears are dominant.
Vix – 27.35

Market internals are Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors

Ranking the Strength of the S&P 500 ETFs over 12 month period

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLE, XLU, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLV, XLK, XLP, XLC and XLB.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLU, XLE, XLY, XLV, XLP, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLC and XLB.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade Stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.

TiTTs – A simple way to trade

This is a study of using TiTTs3 on the 22 September 2022. In this trade, we are just watching the colour of the candles. When the candles are green, it is in an Up Trend. When the candles are Red, it is in a Down Trend. When it is Yellow, it is in a sideward Trend or Range Trading.

Momentum dots are the other signal for a change in the momentum in a long UpTrend or DownTrend. That is our Exit signal. When the dots are Green, the momentum is Upward. When the dots are White, the momentum is Downward. When there are no dots, the momentum is Neutral or Sideward.

Chart 1 belows shows the Red candles trending downwards When the White dots changed to Green dots, it is a signal of the change in momentum and to Exit the trade.

Chart 1: 22 September 2022 – 1 minute chart showing the Entry points and also the possible Exit points

Before the market opened at 9:30 am ET, the /RTY was trending downward. The important thing to do is to exit the trade at 9:29 am just before the market Open. The idea is not to trade the volatility when the market opened at 9:30 am. At 9:34 am ET, we enter the trade to the downside. We exit this trade to the downside when the momentum dots changed from White to Green. The other option to exit the trade is when the candle changed from Red to Yellow.

21 September 2022 – Another 0.75% interest hike

Chart 1: Overall market analysis of the indices, oil, gold, bond and US dollar index

Definitions
Bullish bias – Candle Close is above 55 SMA and 8 EMA or 21 EMA and 8 EMA is above 21 EMA
Bullish – Candle Close is above 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 55 SMA and 8 EMA is above 21 EMA
Bearish bias – Candle Close is below 55 SMA and 8 EMA or 21 EMA and 8 EMA is below 21 EMA
Bearish – Candle Close is below 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 55 SMA and 8 EMA is below 21 EMA

Summary (The Week Ahead)
$DJTDownTrend and downward momentum.
/YM DownTrend and downward momentum.
/RTYDownTrend and downward momentum.
/NQDownTrend and downward momentum.
/ESDownTrend and downward momentum.

The indices are trending downward and momentum is downward.

/CLDownTrend and downward momentum.
/GCDownTrend and downward momentum.
/ZBDownTrend and downward momentum.
HYGDownTrend and downward momentum.
DBCDownTrend and downward momentum.

Daily Tight Squeezes (The Week Ahead)

Daily Squeezes (The Week Ahead)
$DXY, EUR/USD

Preliminary Squeezes (The Week Ahead)
/BTC, /CL

Market Internals

Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Bearish.
Put/Call ratio – 1.029
Market Breadth – below threshold line showing more losers than gainers.
Volume Acc/Dis – below threshold line showing distribution overall.
Vix – 27.99

Market internals are Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors

Ranking the Strength of the S&P 500 ETFs over 12 month period

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLE, XLU, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLP, XLK, XLV and XLC.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLU, XLE, XLY, XLP, XLV, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLB and XLC.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade Stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.

20 September 2022 – Downward pressure on the market

Chart 1: Overall market analysis of the indices, oil, gold, bond and US dollar index

Definitions
Bullish bias – Candle Close is above 55 SMA and 8 EMA or 21 EMA and 8 EMA is above 21 EMA
Bullish – Candle Close is above 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 55 SMA and 8 EMA is above 21 EMA
Bearish bias – Candle Close is below 55 SMA and 8 EMA or 21 EMA and 8 EMA is below 21 EMA
Bearish – Candle Close is below 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 55 SMA and 8 EMA is below 21 EMA

Summary (The Week Ahead)
$DJTDownTrend and downward momentum.
/YM DownTrend and downward momentum.
/RTYDownTrend and downward momentum.
/NQDownTrend and downward momentum.
/ESDownTrend and downward momentum.

The indices are trending downward and momentum is downward.

/CLDownTrend and neutral momentum.
/GCDownTrend and downward momentum.
/ZBDownTrend and downward momentum.
HYGDownTrend and downward momentum.
DBCDownTrend and downward momentum.

Daily Tight Squeezes (The Week Ahead)
EUR/USD

Daily Squeezes (The Week Ahead)
$DXY

Preliminary Squeezes (The Week Ahead)
/BTC

Market Internals

Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Bearish.
Put/Call ratio – 1.085
Market Breadth – below threshold line showing more losers than gainers.
Volume Acc/Dis – below threshold line showing distribution overall.
Vix – 27.16

Market internals are Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors

Ranking the Strength of the S&P 500 ETFs over 12 month period

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLE, XLU, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLK, XLP, XLV and XLC.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLU, XLE, XLY, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLK, XLB and XLC.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade Stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.

TiTTs3 – 20 September 2022 – Trend and Momentum in Alignment

This is a study of using TiTTs3 on the 20 September 2022. In this trade, we are just watching the colour of the candles. When the candles are green, it is in an Up Trend. When the candles are Red, it is in a Down Trend. When it is Yellow, it is in a sideward Trend or Range Trading.

The other thing that we are looking for are the Momentum dots. When the dots are Green, the momentum is Upward. When the dots are White, the momentum is Downward. When there are no dots, the momentum is Neutral or Sideward.

Chart 1 belows shows the Red candles trending downwards and also there was the White downward momentum dots.

Chart 1: 20 September 2022 – 1 minute chart showing the Entry points and also the possible Exit points

It trended down from 3:31 am ET till 4:27 am ET when the candle changed to Yellow. We exit this trade when there is a change of the Trend or Momentum. Typically, the momentum will change first. When the Red candles changed to Yellow and then Green, there is a change in the Trend.

When the Momentum dots changed from White to Green dots, there is a change in the momentum. Typically, the Momentum dots will changed from White dots to no dots and then Green dots. There is a slow transition in the change of the colour of the dots.

Chart 2: 20 September 2022 – 1 minute chart showing the Entry points and also the possible Exit points

In chart 2 above, we have another example of a DownTrend shown by the Red candles. Also the White Downward momentum dots are aligned with the Trend and we hold on to the trade until there is a change either either the Trend or Momentum.

In a downTrend, a change in momentum means the Red candles changed to Yellow and then Green. In a change of momentum, the White dots changed from White to nothing (Black) to Green dots.