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5 October 2018 – Weekly Review – Bond Tumbles, Indices pull back


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 11206.77 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 361.27. Intermediate Cycle is positive with rising slope. Short term cycle is positive with falling slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 26447.05 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 650. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1632.112 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 85.69. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7399.0071 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 373.11. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2885.57 with a big bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 70.57. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $74.29 per barrel with a low closing spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.95. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1206.7 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 24.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and rising. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.35 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.48. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short term cycle is negative and rising. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 18.30 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.675. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 137’05 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.91. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.30 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.16. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.595 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.118. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. It is in a Weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.152 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.016. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 113.75 with a low closing doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.028. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and rising. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) closed at 1.0142 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.016. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. It is in monthly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLU, XLV, XLI, XLF and XLK respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLI, XLE, XLU, XLF and XLK respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is neutral. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 130.28. Vix is at 14.82 and Vix futures 15.27.

The Week Ahead
Market Internals are signalling a bearishness. Skew is normal. Vix and Vix futures have risen. All the indices are now pulling back. The prognosis is for the bearishness to continue into the coming week.

To YOUR wealth!

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