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8 October 2018 – Bond Selloff continues, Indices pullback

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 11203.90 with a high closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 184.74. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Dow Industrial closed at 26486.78 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 306.26. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1629.515 with a high closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 17.20. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7352.8231 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 148.52. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2884.43 with a bullish spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 27.37. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $74.22 per barrel with a high closing spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.51. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is Overbought.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1191.5 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 22. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a daily Squeeze.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.45 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.12. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 18.34 with a bearish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.3. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is Overbought.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 138′ with a hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.03. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is OverSold.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.11 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.28. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.752 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.44. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is in a Weekly Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1490 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0069. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 113.22 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.914. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.014 with a tiny doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0038. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLU, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLP, XLK and XLY.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLI, XLV, XLE, XLU and XLF respectively.

Market Internals
Market internals continue to deteriorate. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing nett losers to gainers. Market Volume is sloping downwards showing that there are more distribution. Market Sentiment is slightly bullish. Skew is at 129.64. Vix is at 15.69 and Vix futures is at 15.67.

The Week Ahead
The pullback in the indices could turn into something more significant. Market internals continue to deteriorate and the pullback could develop into something more significant. Vix is above 15 and so is the Vix future. Skew is normal. The prognosis is for the market to consolidate and before pulling further downwards.

To YOUR wealth!

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