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9 October 2018 – Indices continue its descend, S&P 500 is resilient

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10996.08 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 225.62. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Dow Industrial closed at 26430.57 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA and on its 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 215.78. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1621.8654 with an inverted hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 14.74. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7371.62 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 90.5. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2880.34 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and on its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 20.56. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $74.67 per barrel with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.28. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1193.1 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 9.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and negative. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a daily Squeeze.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.43 with a bearish hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.1. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 18.38 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.19. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is Overbought.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 137’23 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.0.125 Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is OverSold.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.24 with a bullish candle in a bullish harami candle pattern below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.679 with a low closing spinning top candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.517. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is in a Weekly Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1489 with a high closing doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0071. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 112.94 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and on its 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.525. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.014 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0044. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLU, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLK and XLY.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLE, XLI, XLU, XLF, XLK and XLP respectively.

Market Internals
Market Breadth continues to slope downwards showing nett losers to gainers. Market Volume Acc/Dist is sloping downwards showing nett distribution. Market Sentiment remains positive. Skew is at 128.98. Vix is at 15.95 and Vix Futures is at 16.10.

The Week Ahead
Market Breadth continues to deteriorate as the market is showing nett losers to gainers and distribution continues. Skew is normal. Vix has increased to above 15 and Vix futures is now above 16. The prognosis is for volatility to continue as we are in an environment of Trade Wars with unknown outcome.

To YOUR wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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