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11 October 2018 – Decline continues, will 200 SMA support holds?

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10397.23 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 324.03. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25052.83 with a huge bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 783.87. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1545.38 with a huge bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 35.51. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6964.03 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 227.20. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2728.37 with a huge bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 84.63. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $70.99 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.25. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1227.7 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 35.3. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.32 with a spinning top candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.19. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.75 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.288. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 138’16 with a bullish spinning top doji candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.25. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is OverSold.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 84.70 with a big bearish ‘rolling pin’ candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.43. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias- Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.036 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.476. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral. It is in a Weekly Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1592 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.008. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

USD/JPY closed at 112.25 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.707. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0164 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0067. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLK, XLY, XLE and XLV.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLU, XLE, XLY, XLF and XLK respectively.

Market Internals
Market Breadth continues to slope downwards showing nett losers to gainers. Market Volume Acc/Dist is sloping downwards showing nett distribution. Market Sentiment is negative. Skew is at 130.85. Vix is at 24.98 and Vix Futures is at 20.00.

The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment has dipped into negative for 2 consecutive territory which is unusual in this long bull market. Market Breadth continues to deteriorate and has been deteriorating for more than 5 weeks. Distribution has only started the last few days. There is likely to be more days of continuous distribution if this market is to go down further.

Skew is normal. Vix has increased to above 24. Vix futures is now above 20. The prognosis is for volatility to continue till the end of the week. The Trade War issue continues to dominate.

Dow Transportation and Russell have broken through their 200 SMA support. Nasdaq 100 has broken through and appear to have found support. If the selloff continues, the technical structure of the bullmarket has been broken which means that we could be transitioning into a range trading market for the coming months. The prognosis is for a continuation of the bearishness.

To YOUR wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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