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Z5 Fri, 24 May 2024

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Z5 Wed, 8 May 2024

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Z5 Wed, 1 May 2024

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Z5 Tues, 30 April 2024

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Z5 Mon, 29 April 2024

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6 December 2018 – A sharp sell-off which brings the bulls out-of-their hidings

Indices
Dow Transportation gapped down and closed at 10358.70 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 251.92. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Dow Industrial gapped down and closed at 24947.67 with a big bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 784.85. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1477.4117 with a big dragonfly doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 37.92. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 gapped down and closed at 6838.85 with a big bullish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 209.67. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 gapped down and closed at 2695.95 with a big bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 78.53. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $51.71 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 3.22. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1243.1 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 9.9. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF gapped down and closed at 17.25 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.19. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Commodities (DBC) ETF gapped up and closed at 15.65 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.35. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 142’22 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.687. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped down and closed at 82.99 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.56. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias- Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.998 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.654. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a daily and Weekly Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1371 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.01. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

USD/JPY closed at 112.65 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.966. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0076 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.01. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is positive and flat. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLY, XLK, XLU, XLV and XLI.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLV, XLP, XLY, XLB, XLK and XLI respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is neutral. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew is at 116.68. Vix is at 21.19 and Vix Futures is at 20.25.

The Week Ahead
Market internals have turned bearish. The selling candles in the indices are rather large as of late. Skew is normal. Vix has risened to be above 21 and Vix futures is above 20. Market sentiment is neutral. The prognosis is for a continuing volatile market with a bearish bias.

To YOUR wealth!
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