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Z5 Fri, 24 May 2024

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Z5 Tues, 30 April 2024

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Z5 Mon, 29 April 2024

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7 December 2018 – Death crosses in the indices


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 9951.16 with a huge bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1123.69. Intermediate Cycle is negative with falling slope. Short term cycle is negative with falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 24388.95 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1737.99. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1448.09 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 112.49. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6613.275 with a huge bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 512.46. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2633.08 with a huge bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 178.65. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $52.13 per barrel with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 4.47. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1254.0 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 29.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short term cycle is positive and rising. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.41 with a high closing doji candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.41. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short term cycle is negative and rising. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.70 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.65. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 143’14 with a huge bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and on its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 4.375. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 82.83 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.11. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.713 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.826. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is in a Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.138 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0112. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 112.68 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.58. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) closed at 1.0000 with a inverted hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.012. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a monthly Squeeze.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLY, XLV, XLK, XLE, XLP and XLF respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLP, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLE and XLI respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is neutral. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 114.30. Vix is at 23.23 and Vix futures 21.40.

The Week Ahead
Market breadth is giving mixed signal. It is likely that the market is temporarily oversold and should see a small bounce upwards before resuming its downward momentum. Skew is normal. Vix has trended upwards and is above 23. Vix futures is above 21. There is backwardation in the Vix. The prognosis is for more volatility with a downward bias.

To YOUR wealth!

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