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Z5 Tues, 30 April 2024

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31 December 2018 – A Muted end to a volatile month!

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 9170.40 with a small bullish candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 117.32. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. 

Dow Industrial closed at 23327.46 with a small bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 270.78. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. 

Russell 2000 closed at 1348.59 with a small bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.39. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6329.96 with a small bearish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 91.45. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

S&P 500 closed at 2488.83 with a big bullish marubozu candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 91.16. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $45.81 per barrel with a small bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.8. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.    

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1284.7 with a small bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 6.8. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 16.94 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.08. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It has exited its weekly Squeeze.   

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 14.49 with a small doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.18. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.   

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 145’28 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.0625. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.  

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 81.10 with a small bearish candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.29. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.707 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.52. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a daily Squeeze and has exited its weekly Squeeze.     

EUR/USD closed at 1.1468 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0046. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction: Buy.

USD/JPY closed at 109.607 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.917. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.  

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0266 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0066. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.  

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLY, XLK, XLI, XLE, XLB and XLV.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLY, XLK, XLI, XLE, XLB and XLV respectively.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment has turned bullish. Market Breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards and showing accumulation. Skew is at 117.8. Vix is at 25.42 and Vix Futures is at 24.25.   

The Week Ahead
It has been a volatile month and the market closed slightly up on the last day of the month. Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Internals are showing strength. The indices are below its 200 SMA which shows that they are now in a bearish market. It is likely that the indices will test its recent low again. The prognosis is for a volatile 2019.

To YOUR wealth!
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