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28 Feb 2019 – Market internals are weakening

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10467.22 with a small bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 200 SMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 67.43. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Sell.

Dow Industrial closed at 25916.00 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 132.65. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Buy. 

Russell 2000 closed at 1575.5492 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 10.674. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7097.53 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 44.0. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

S&P 500 closed at 2784.49 with a small bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 11.22. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.    

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $57.25 per barrel with a small bullish candle below its 200 SMA and above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.0. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.     

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1314.7 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 14.9. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.96 with a small doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.11. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.   

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 144’15 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.19. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.75 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.21. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.221 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.459. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.      

EUR/USD closed at 1.1370 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.006. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

USD/JPY closed at 111.37 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.827. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLI, XLU, XLB and XLE.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLI, XLK, XLE, XLF and XLY respectively.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew is at 126.44. Vix is at 14.78 and Vix Futures is at 15.40.  

The Week Ahead 
The indices appears to be turning. Gold continues to be selling off while oil is trending upwards. Vix and Vix futures are below 15 and 16 respectively. Skew is normal. Market internals are weakening. The prognosis is for the indices to turn downwards.    

To YOUR wealth!
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