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4 December 2019 – May be off, May be on Trade Talks

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10574.58 with an inverted hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range is 193.65. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 42.

Dow Industrial gapped up and closed at 27649.78 with a small doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 224.64. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 50.1.

Russell 2000 gapped up and closed at 1613.8955 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 15.753. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 58.8.

Nasdaq 100 gapped up and closed at 8296.5294 with a small doji candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 61.72. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Neutral. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 55.7.

S&P 500 (SPX) gapped up and closed at 3112.76 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 26.18. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Neutral. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 56.5.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $58.35 per barrel with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 2.38. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upwards. RSI – 56.2.

Gold (/GC) closed at 1480 with a small doji candle below its 50 SMA and above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 13.2. Fractal Chaos Band – closed on its FCB upperband. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 52.4.

Commodities (DBC) ETF gapped up and closed at 15.54 with a bullish marubozu candle below its 200 SMA and above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.26. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 52.8.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 158’25 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 1.9375. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and flat. Short Cycle Wave – positive and flat. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 48.5.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped up and closed at 86.68 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 200 SMA and below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.23. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 47.5.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.602 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and on its 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.3549. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 39.2.


EUR/USD closed at 1.1076 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.0008. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 56.4.

USD/JPY closed at 108.84 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.537. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 51.2.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLP, XLV, XLF, SPY, SPX, /ES, XLK, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLU and XLE.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLP, XLV, SPY, SPX, XLF, /ES, XLK, XLI, XLY, XLB, XLU and XLE.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Very Bullish. Market Breadth – sloping downward showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis – sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew – 123.31. Vix – 14.80 and Vix Futures – 15.35.   

The Week Ahead 
The market has been very much driven by news. The On again Off again US-China Trade deal continues to create volatility for the market. Market Internals are giving mixed signals. The outcome of the US-China trade deal is getting less and less important as it drags on. The US economy is doing relatively well but there are structural issues with it such as its high government debt. The prognosis is for a mix and uncertain market with selling pressure.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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