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21 April 2020 – Oil dominates market trading

Summary (The Week Ahead)
$DJTDownTrend and in a Squeeze. /YMDownTrend. /RTYDownTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. /NQUpTrend. /ESDownTrend.

/CL DownTrend and in preliminary Squeeze. /GC – DownTrend. /ZB – UpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. $DXY – UpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. HYGUpTrend.

Market Internals
Market SentimentBearish. Put/Call ratio – 0.959. Market Breadth – sloping upward showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis – sloping downward and showing distribution. Vix – 45.41 and Vix Futures – 41.99. Skew – 123.71.

With the overnight rout in oil, news was negative and the indices sold off. Market Sentiment has turned bearish. Short term market volume is showing distribution. Overall, market internals are giving a weak Sell signal. The collapse in oil prices has created more bankruptcies in the shale oil industry. The prognosis is for a Selling pressure in the market.

Intermarket Analysis
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $13.12. Daily trading range – 16.08. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 31. It is in a preliminary Squeeze.

Gold (/GC) closed at 1702.2. Daily trading range – 51.8. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 55.9.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 10.72. Daily trading range – 0.77. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 29.8.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 182’12. Daily trading range – 2.1562. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 61.1. It is in a preliminary Squeeze.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 78.41. Daily trading range – 1.62. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 48.6.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 100.209. Daily trading range – 0.55. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 54.6.


EUR/USD closed at 1.0856. Daily trading range – 0.0013. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 45.

USD/JPY closed at 107.75. Daily trading range – 0.61. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 47.7.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLV, XLP, XLY, XLU, XLK, /ES, SPY, SPX, XLB, XLI, XLE and XLF.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLV, XLP, XLY, XLU, XLK, /ES, SPX, SPY, XLB, XLI, XLF and XLE.  


To Your Wealth!
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