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22 April 2020 – Is it a Bullish or Bearish market?

Summary (The Week Ahead)
$DJTDownTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. /YMUpTrend. /RTYDownTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. /NQUpTrend. /ESUpTrend.

/CL DownTrend and in preliminary Squeeze. /GC – UpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. /ZB – UpTrend and in a Squeeze. $DXY – UpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. HYGDownTrend.

Market Internals
Market SentimentBullish. Put/Call ratio – 0.746. Market Breadth – sloping upward showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis – sloping downward and showing distribution. Vix – 41.98 and Vix Futures – 39.80. Skew – 126.19.

The indices had a mixed day. Dow Transportation and Russell 2000 made losses while S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Down Industrial made gains. Treasury bond sold off. Oil futures gained slight to about US 14 per barrel. Market Sentiment has turned bullish. Short term market volume is showing distribution. Overall, market internals are giving a mixed signal. The prognosis is for a Sideway market.

Intermarket Analysis
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $14.23. Daily trading range – 5.92. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 33.4. It is in a preliminary Squeeze.

Gold (/GC) closed at 1736.4. Daily trading range – 47. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 59.6.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 10.87. Daily trading range – 0.27. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 34.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 180’30. Daily trading range – 2.5. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 57.4. It is in a preliminary Squeeze.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 79.10. Daily trading range – 0.96. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 50.6.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 100.345. Daily trading range – 0.6. Fractal Chaos Band – closed above its FCB. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 55.6.


EUR/USD closed at 1.0822. Daily trading range – 0.0081. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 42.9.

USD/JPY closed at 107.73. Daily trading range – 0.4239. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 47.2.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLV, XLP, XLY, XLU, XLK, SPX, SPY, /ES, XLB, XLI, XLE and XLF.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLV, XLP, XLY, XLU, XLK, SPX, SPY, /ES, XLB, XLI, XLF and XLE.  


To Your Wealth!
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