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10 May 2019 – Weekly Review – Trade War is On


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10602.19 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 585.9. Intermediate Cycle is positive with rising slope. Short term cycle is positive with falling slope. Market direction:- Buy.     

Dow Industrial closed at 25942.37 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1035.09. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Buy.   

Russell 2000 closed at 1572.9928 with a bearish candle below its 50 SMA, on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 72.23. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short term cycle is positive and rising. Market direction:- Buy.      

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7586.5311 with a bearish candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 418.975. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Buy.         

S&P 500 closed at 2881.40 with a bearish candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 120.25. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Buy.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $61.71 per barrel with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA and below its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 2.91. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Buy.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1286.8 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, on its 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 14.7. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.   

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 148’16 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.75. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Buy.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.23 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.94. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Buy.         

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.323 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.6109. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. It is in a Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1233 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0089. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.       

USD/JPY closed at 109.92 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.854. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.    

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLF, XLP, XLB, XLK, XLU and XLI respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLF, XLY and XLP respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 118.54. Vix is at 16.04 and Vix futures 16.15.

The Week Ahead
The week closed with bullish candle in downtrend market. The current trade war has generated a pessimistic market and this could become prolonged. SKEW is normal. Vix is below 17 and Vix futures is below 17. The prognosis is for strong selling pressure in a volatile market.

To YOUR wealth!

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