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Trend-in-Trend Trading System

What is TiTTs?
TiTTs stands for Trend-In-Trend Trading System. It is designed to be a visual trading system represented by the colours of the candles for UpTrend (Green) or DownTrend (Red) and colours of the dots of Upward (Green) or Downward (White) momentum. The intent is to enter into a trade when the colour of the candle and dots are in sync. The candles represent the Trend and the dots represent the momentum. So when the Trend and Momentum are in sync, we enter into a trade and when it is out of sync, we exit a trade.

When the candles are Green and the colour of the dots are Green, we enter into long trade. When the candles are Red and the momentum dots are White, we enter into a Short trade. We look to exit a trade when the candles and the dots are out of sync.

Chart 1: TiTTs or Trend-In-Trend Trading System

In the chart above, the 2 understudies below the main chart are the Short Ripple and LongTide indicators. The Short Ripple indicator is a multi-timeframe indicator while the LongTide indicator is a customised MACD indicator. Both are shown as understudies in the ToS charting system.

The Short Ripple indicator is used to trade the shorter timeframe while the LongTide indicator is for holding onto a trade for the longer period. When the market is trending well, trading the longer period trading system allows for a bigger profit. When the market is choppy, trading using the shorter period trading system will give a smaller profit as we are more likely to be shaken out due to the volatility.

Multi-TimeFrame in Moving Averages and Stacked Moving Averages
The 55 SMA is an important moving average when we trade the /RTY in the 1-minute chart. The 144 SMA in the 1-minute chart is equivalent to the 55 SMA in the 3-minute chart. By utilising the 55 SMA and 144 SMA, we are essentially analysing the state of the market in 2 timeframes. In TiTTs, the moving averages of 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 34 EMA, 55 SMA, 89 SMA, 144 SMA and 233 SMA are used to analyze the market. The intention of trading is to be in sync with the market which means the Trend and Momentum must be aligned. That is when the big moves happen and as a trader, we are interested in capturing these big moves.

When the moving averages are stacked, we know we have a strong Trend. Traders are interested to buy the dip in a strong trend as there will be pullbacks even in a strong Trend.

8 EMA, 21 EMA and 55 SMA and Candle Close
For an UpTrend, the candle Close has to be above the 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 55 SMA and 144 SMA. The 8 EMA has to be above the 21 EMA. As the UpTrend continues, we expect the candle Close to be above the 8 EMA as it continues to cross the 55 SMA and the other longer period moving averages such as the 89 SMA, 144 SMA and 233 SMA.

In such a scenario where it has to fight its way upward to cross the other moving averages, we can expect resistance from those moving averages. Likewise if it downTrending. In that case, it is fighting against Support at those moving averages.

In a trade with stacked moving averages, the trending progress is much smoother. The probability of a strong trending trade is much higher and as the adage goes, “the trend is your friend” and we trade the trend until it ends.

Trend and Counter Trend trading

In chart 2 below, there is a downtrending move when the candles turned Red and the momentum dots turned White. This happened when the moving averages are stacked above the candle Close. In such as move, the /RTY trended downward with little support until bearish exhaustion and the Bulls came in to push it back up.

Chart 2: 16 September 2022 – 1 minute chart showing the Entry points and also the possible Exit points

The bullish trade upward is more volatile as there are a few moving averages acting as Resistances. It fought its way upward with several pullbacks until it reached the 233 SMA and then Bullish exhaustion set in. The Bears managed to overwhelm the Bulls and took the /RTY futures downward.

Importance of Time of Day in Trading
The 9:30 am to 12 noon ET is the most important time to trade especially when trading the /RTY. That is when there are volume in the trading which means good liquidity. The initial few minutes after market open tends to be rather volatile with the potential for the market to reversed itself. Sometimes there are 2-3 reversals within the first 10 minutes after market Open.

The other important time is 8:30 am ET when news are announced. For example there could be an announcement on inflation numbers or CPI and so on. This can cause some rather violent reaction in the market.

The Importance of Not Trading in a Range Bound market

For traders that are trading stocks or futures, the trending market whether it is up or down is when profits are made. Making money from non-trending market is for Option traders. Most traders that trade when the market is not trending are very likely to lose money. Considering that about 70% of the time, the market is range-bound, it is even more important to know when Not to trade.

Artificial Intelligence and Self-Learning

We continue to develop our Artificial Intelligence (AI) system and foresee a day where it develops into a self-learning and self-training AI.

The TiTTs below are used for explaining how the trading system works. The same rules apply for both Bullish and Bearish trades. The charts are 1-min charts on the Russell 2000 index futures (/RTY). The Rules are set out as below.

This is Trend-In-Trend Trading System (TiTTs) for Entering a trade and also for Exiting a trade. The intent is to look for high probability trades with highest chances of success and minimum probability of losses.

On the 1-minute chart, the 55 SMA is a very important line where it acts as both Support ad Resistance. The idea is that in a rally, we Short Sell at the 55 SMA. If the candles are able to breakout above the 55 SMA, we Buy Long when the index pulls back to the 55 SMA to test its support.