FRED

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 28 June 2017

28 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 27 June 2017

27 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Futures (ES, NQ, GC, CL) – 23 June 17

23 June 2017

Daily status of the futures of Gold (GC), WTI Crude (CL), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES)

Options – 18 December 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

14 December 2015

We closed this CALL credit spread and bought it back for $0.05. Overall, it was a small profit to be redeployed for the next trade.

8 December 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2135/2145 for $1.10. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.10/8.90 = 12.36 % excluding transaction cost. The PUT credit spread was closed for $1.75.

27 November 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 2015/2005 for $1.15. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.15/8.85 = 13.00 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 18 December 2015 (EST)

Options – 21 August 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

21 August 2015

This PUT credit spread expired worthless. The Settlement price was 2015.47.

13 July 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 21 August 2015 (EST)

Options – 17 July 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

13 July 2015

We closed this trade by buying it back for $0.05. Option expiration is this coming Friday morning.

15 June 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 17 July 2015 (EST)

Options – 18 June 15 Monthly Income – Bear Call on SPX

Update

5 June 2015

We closed this trade by buying it back for $0.05. Option expiration is another 2 weeks away.

18 May 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2185/2195 for $1.05. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.05/8.95 = 11.7 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 19 June 2015 (EST)

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Background
I am Jeff Toh and founder of the Academy of Stocks, Options, Futures and Forex. I am a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) with over 30 plus years of investing experience. Over the years, I have invested in mutual funds and stocks and traded in options, stocks and futures. I was an engineer in the telecommunications and broadcast industry for about 27 years since graduating from the University of Canterbury, New Zealand in 1986. One of my majoring subject was Expert Systems which has evolved and grown into Artificial Intelligence (AI, 爱) which I have utilised it in my trading systems.

Over the years, I have maintained an interest in AI (爱) and has seen its tremendous progress. Now, with the same dedication that I have spent over the nearly 3 decades in engineering and management, I am pioneering the use of algorithmic and AI (爱) in trading the global stocks, futures and forex market especially in the Asian region.

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14 November 2018 – Bulls are not winning

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10456.61 with a doji candle on its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 240.62. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25080.50 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and on its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 565.47. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1502.5055 with a bearish candle pattern below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 23.41. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6769.8726 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 179.9198. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2701.58 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 61.05. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $56 per barrel with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.24. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1211.4 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.1. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.28 with a small doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.08. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 16.05 with a small bearish haram candle pattern below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.264. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 138’23 with a big spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.219. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 83.54 with a bearish ‘rolling pin’ candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.65. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias- Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.987 with a big spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.659. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is in a Weekly Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1307 with a bullish ‘rolling pin’ candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0084. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 113.60 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.714. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 0.9975 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0063. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLB, XLI, XLY, XLP, XLF and XLV.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLP, XLB, XLU, XLI, XLY, XLF and XLV respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is falling with more losers than gainers. Volume Accumulation/Distribution is sloping downwards which means the market is in distribution mode. Vix is at 21.25. Vix futures is at 19.62 Skew is at 120.68.

The Week Ahead
Market internals are showing weakness. Market sentiment is bearish. Skew is normal. Vix has increased to above 21 while Vix futures is below 20. It is in backwardation with the expectation that the volatility is short-term. The prognosis is for further market weakness to continue.

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13 November 2018 – Indecision and a potential reverse H&S pattern

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10433.45 with a low closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 184.49. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25286.49 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 317.25. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1514.8023 with a low closing spinning top doji candle pattern below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 23.41. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6830.9057 with a low closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 139.76. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2722.18 with a low closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 39.62. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Continue reading 13 November 2018 – Indecision and a potential reverse H&S pattern

12 November 2018 – Apple falls, Indices follow

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10366.51 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 197.48. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25387.18 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 648.79. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1518.7943 with a big bearish candle pattern below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 31.45. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6829.098 with a huge bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 219.77. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2726.22 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 59.01. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Continue reading 12 November 2018 – Apple falls, Indices follow

9 November 2018 – Mid-Term election over, market still is range trading


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10517.21 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 427.8. Intermediate Cycle is negative with falling slope. Short term cycle is negative with falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25989.30 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1016.35. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1549.4926 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 51.41. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7039.1492 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and on its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 346.16. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2781.01 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA, below its 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 97.21. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Continue reading 9 November 2018 – Mid-Term election over, market still is range trading

8 November 2018 – A pause after the mid-term election

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10660.66 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 115.7. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 26191.22 with a bullish spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 195.92. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1578.2091 with a small spinning top doji candle pattern above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 13.02. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7158.5908 with a small spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 200 SMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 77.99. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2806.83 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.76. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Continue reading 8 November 2018 – A pause after the mid-term election

7 November 2018 – Indices supportive of the mixed election results

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10714.49 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 249.41. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 26180.30 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 565.13. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1582.1591 with a bullish marubozu candle pattern above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 26.06. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7203.133 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 200 SMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 217.12. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2813.89 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 59.7. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Continue reading 7 November 2018 – Indices supportive of the mixed election results

6 November 2018 – Midterms election market, volatility

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10474.11 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 149.01. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25635.01 with a bullish engulfing candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 200 SMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 206.96. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is in a Squeeze.

Russell 2000 closed at 1556.0975 with a bullish doji sandwich candle pattern above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 20.012. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6988.85 with a dragonfly doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 96.78. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2755.45 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.74. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Continue reading 6 November 2018 – Midterms election market, volatility

5 November 2018 – US Mid term election market

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10361.81 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 207.03. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25461.70 with a bullish engulfing candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 200 SMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 245.88. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1547.5116 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 20.012. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6937.0894 with a dragonfly doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 105.49. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2738.31 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 26.33. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Continue reading 5 November 2018 – US Mid term election market

2nd November 2018 – Midterms election and volatility


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10366.32 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 756.44. Intermediate Cycle is negative with falling slope. Short term cycle is negative with falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25270.83 with a bullish harami candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1,456.75. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1547.9814 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 95.53. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6965.294 with a high closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and on its 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 510.52. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2723.06 with a harami candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 153.01. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Continue reading 2nd November 2018 – Midterms election and volatility

1 November 2018 – Volatility continues, Bulls are out and about

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10368.52 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 233.72. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25380.74 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and 200 SMA and on its 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 461.91. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1544.9803 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 35.73. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7069.1712 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and on its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 139.628. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullsh.

S&P 500 closed at 2711.74 with an inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 54.06. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Continue reading 1 November 2018 – Volatility continues, Bulls are out and about