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Options – 18 December 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

14 December 2015

We closed this CALL credit spread and bought it back for $0.05. Overall, it was a small profit to be redeployed for the next trade.

8 December 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2135/2145 for $1.10. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.10/8.90 = 12.36 % excluding transaction cost. The PUT credit spread was closed for $1.75.

27 November 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 2015/2005 for $1.15. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.15/8.85 = 13.00 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 18 December 2015 (EST)

Options – 21 August 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

21 August 2015

This PUT credit spread expired worthless. The Settlement price was 2015.47.

13 July 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 21 August 2015 (EST)

Options – 17 July 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

13 July 2015

We closed this trade by buying it back for $0.05. Option expiration is this coming Friday morning.

15 June 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 1980/1970 for $1.30. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.30/8.70 = 14.94 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 17 July 2015 (EST)

Options – 18 June 15 Monthly Income – Bear Call on SPX

Update

5 June 2015

We closed this trade by buying it back for $0.05. Option expiration is another 2 weeks away.

18 May 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2185/2195 for $1.05. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.05/8.95 = 11.7 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 19 June 2015 (EST)

Options – 15 May 15 Monthly Income – Bear Call on SPX

Update

6 May 2015

We closed this trade by buying it back for $0.05. Option expiration is next week.

27 April 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2160/2170 for $1.20. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.20/8.80 = 13.6 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 15 May 2015 (EST)

Options – 17 April 15 Monthly Income – Bull PUT on SPX

Update

17 April 2015

The PUT spread expired worthless and we now move on to the next trade.

19 March 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 2020/2010 for $1.60. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.60/8.40 = 19.05 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 17 April 2015 (EST)

Options – 20 March 15 Monthly Income – Bear Call on SPX

Update

18 March 2015

We bought this back for $0.05. This trade is now closed.

12 March 2015

We sold a PUT credit spread at 2020/2010 for $2.00. ROR is at 2.00/8.090 = 25.00 % excluding transaction cost.

9 March 2015

We closed off the monthly PUT credit spread at 2050/2040 for $2.45. ROR is now reduced to 0.85/9.15 = 9.28 % excluding transaction cost.

24 February 2015

We sold a monthly PUT credit spread at 2050/2040. We have now an Iron Condor with ROR at 3.30/6.70 = 49.25 % excluding transaction cost.

13 February 2015

We sold a monthly CALL credit spread at 2160/2170 for $1.65. The total Return-on-Risk for this new trade is 1.65/8.35 = 19.76 % excluding transaction cost. Expiration is at 9:30 am, 20 March 2015 (EST)

Weekly Market commentary ending 4 Nov 2016

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6 December 2016 – All time high in Russell 2000

The Russell 2000 touched new all-time high at 1353.57 as it takes over leading the market higher. Dow Transportation made a new year high at 9144.62 and Dow Industrial and S&P 500 are within striking distance of new all time highs.

Dollar index made slight gain for the day and remain above 100. WTI crude oil futures pulled back but remain trading above $50 per barrel. Bond futures is still in its downtrend.

The FOMC meets next week and the market is expecting an interest rate hike. Economic data coming out today showed improved Durable Goods and Factory Orders and that should support the rate hike. The financials, transport and defensive sectors made gains for the day. Tech hasb been the laggard and semiconductors have been lagging the market managed to make slight gains.

US trade deficit jumped almost 18% in October 2016 as imports rose to the highest in 14 months. Factory Goods Orders rise 2.7% in October. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for December rose to 54.8 from 51.8 above estimate of 52.0. Economic outlook rose to 56.3 vs 52.2 last month while Personal finance rose to 59.8 vs 58.9 last month.

Dow Transportation probed for the bottom in the first two hours of trading. It rallied upward till the end of the day and made a yearly high at 9144.62 above all its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial probed for the bottom in the first hour of trading before rallying upward. It closed at 19251.78 above all its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is still in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 probed for the bottom in the first hour of trading before rallying upward to reach new all time high of 1353.57. It closed with a bullish candle above all its moving averages. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 95.2%.

Nasdaq 100 range traded throughout the day and closed at 4788.6714 with a small doji candle below its 8 EMA. Momentum is neutral. Volumetric buying pressure is at 82.4%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 probed for the bottom in the first hour of trading before rallying upward for the rest of the day. It closed with a bullish hammer candle at 2212.23 above all its moving averages. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 94%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures traded indecisively and closed with a doji candle. It is trading at $50.58 per barrel. It is trading above all its moving averages.

Gold futures continued its downtrend and is trading at $1171.5 per ounce.

Silver futures traded sideways and is trading at $16.775 per ounce.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF made slight gain and is trading at 19.91.

Commodities (DBC) ETF pulled back and is trading above its moving averages and closed at 15.61.

Bonds
Bond futures (ZB) traded downward and is trading at 150’10.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) traded upward and closed at 86.03 above its 21 EMA and just below its 50 SMA.

Bonds ETF (TLT) traded sideways and closed at 119.38 below its moving averages. Momentum is downward.

Currencies
The dollar index made slight gain for the day and is at 100.540.

EUR/USD pulled back from yesterdays big gain and is trading at 1.07177.

USD/JPY made slight gain and is trading at 114.108 above its moving averages.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLE, XLI, XLB and XLY respectively.

On a 3-month lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLE, XLI, XLB and XLY respectively.

Market Internals
Vix closed at 11.79. Vix futures is at 13.20. Skew is at 130.92. Market sentiment remains bullish. Market breadth is sloping upward. Volumetric accumulation/distribution is sloping upward.

The Week Ahead
The market internals continue to show strength. The US economy continue to show strength and we are in a seasonally strong time of the year. The prognosis is for the market to trend higher.

Stock of the Day
The Stock of the Day is MITK. Mitek Systems, Inc. develops, markets and sells mobile capture and identity verification software solutions for enterprise customers.

 

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5 December 2016 – Italian referendum, new high in Dow Industrial

The Italian referendum results caused the futures market to move lower but that was quickly reversed in the cash market. Dow Jones Industrial made new high as investors shrugged off the Italian referendum results. The Dow Jones Industrial hit 19274.85 which is an all-time. Nasda1 100 played catch-up to the other indices. Vix is back below 13 which means that there is no fear of the market selling off.

The euro briefly plunged to 20-month lows against the US dollar after the results of the Italian referendum was known, but has since regained its losses and more.

The US dollar index pulled back in a volatile trading day. In commodities, oil prices edged higher after a volatile overnight session, with Nymex crude futures gaining 0.3% to $54.95 a barrel. Brent crude, the international futures benchmark, rose 0.9% to $54.95 a barrel.

Dow Transportation made a yearly high in the first hour of trading and traded down for the rest of the day. It traded down for the rest of the day and closed with a doji candle above its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 74.6%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial made new all-time high at 19274.85 in the first hour of trading. It sold down in late morning trading till the end of the day and closed with a small doji candle above its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 99.4%. The index is still in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 shot up in the first half hour after market open. It snoozed for most of the day and closed with a big bullish marubozu candle. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 88.9%.

Nasdaq 100 gapped up on market open and traded sharply upward in the first two hours of trading. It pulled back for the rest of the day and closed with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA. Volumetric buying pressure is at 76.2%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 traded sharply upward in the first hour of trading before pulling back slowly for the rest of the day. It closed with an inverted hammer candle above its moving averages. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 80.3%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Continue reading 5 December 2016 – Italian referendum, new high in Dow Industrial

2 December 2016 (Weekly summary) – Market Rotation


The Dow Jones Transportation and Dow Jones Industrial finished the week in a position of strength. Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 lost for the week. The technology sector has been range trading for about 4 months now and has a sell signal on its weekly chart. Will the Nasdaq 100 lead the market down or is this just a rotation out of technology?

The dollar index pulled back for the week but the uptrend is still intact. WTI crude oil futures had a big week and opened at $45.43 per barrel and closed the week at $51.68 per barrel. Gold continued its downtrend is closed at $1179.20.

Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed with a doji candle above its moving averages. It achieved an all-time high of 9075.82 during the week and closed at 9048.96. It is in a steep uptrend. Weekly volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial closed with a spinning top doji candle above its moving averages. It hits an all time high of 19215 during the week and closed at 19150.00 It is in a steep uptrend. Weekly volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 pulled back and closed with a bearish engulfing candle above all its moving averages. It closed at 1315.00. Momentum is sharply upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 82.7%.

Nasdaq 100 closed with a big bearish engulfing candle on its 21 EMA at 4739.3724. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 70.4%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 closed with a bearish marubozu candle above all its moving averages. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 84.8%. It is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

Continue reading 2 December 2016 (Weekly summary) – Market Rotation

1 December 2016 – Sell-off in Nasdaq

The technology sector continued to sell-off and is leading the market downward. The Trump rally is the Christmas rally come early. The Fed is due for their meeting and it looks like we are due for a rate hike this Christmas. Energy and financial stocks did well. The WTI crude futures is now trading above $50 per barrel. Bonds continue to sell off as yields continue to improve. The tech heavy Nasdaq dropped over -1.5% as there appears to be a rotation out of tech into energy and financial sectors. Semiconductor stocks were hardest hit in tech. FANG stocks have been sold down. In the industrial sector which has been doing relatively well, the autos doing well with GM touching a 52-week high. Markets will be watching the nonfarm monthly payroll data on Friday but expectations remain for the Fed to raise rates at its meeting in 2 weeks.

Dow Transportation shot upward on market open till late morning before pulling back slightly. It closed with a small bullish marubozu candle above all its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 93.1%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial traded upward till midday and then range traded for the rest of the day. It closed with a small bullish candle above all its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 99.8%. The index is still in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 traded upward in the first half hour before selling off. It traded downward throughout the day and closed with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 80.8%.

Nasdaq 100 sold off on market open and continued trading downward throughout the day. It closed with a big bearish candle below its 50 SMA. Momentum has reversed downward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 68.6%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 traded sideways in the first hour before selling off throughout the day. It closed with a bearish candle below its 50 SMA. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 71.5%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Continue reading 1 December 2016 – Sell-off in Nasdaq

30 November 2016 – Oil surged on production cuts

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials traded to new all time high and the energy and financial sectors gained as news of a 1.2M barrel per day production cut by OPEC. On the economic front, we have the non-farm payroll data on Friday. Stronger economic data as the private payroll ADP came in well ahead of consensus and personal income data increased. The Nasdaq 100 underperformed as funds are rotated out of technology into financial and energy sectors.

Dow Transportation shot upward on market open and reached its high of the day. It range traded near its high till the end of the day and closed with a bullish marubozu candle at 8981.65 above its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 90.6%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial shot upward on market open and gradually sold down throughout the day. It closed with an inverted hammer candle at 19123.58 above all its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 96.8%. The index is still in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 was volatile in the first hour of trading before selling off throughout the day. It closed with an inverted hammer candle on its 8 EMA. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 85%.

Nasdaq 100 was volatile in the first hour after market open and then sold down throughout the day. It closed with an inverted hammer candle on its 8 EMA. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 85.2%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 shot upward on market open and then sold down throughout the day. It closed with a bearish inverted hammer candle on its 8 EMA. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 78.8%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Continue reading 30 November 2016 – Oil surged on production cuts

29 November 2016 – Oil volatility continues

Stocks made small gains as Nasdaq Composite traded to new all-time intraday high. WTI oil futures lost nearly 4% and is trading below $46 per barrel amid skepticism of OPEC ability to curb or freeze production increase. GDP rose at its fastest pace in over two years in Q3 and confidence improved drastically from the prior period. The major indices remained at or near their all time highs heading into this Friday;s NFP report on Friday and the FOMC meeting in 2 weeks time. Financials continue to post gains and healthcare stocks were mixed.

Dow Transportation was volatile on market open and probed for the bottom of the day. It rallied upward in the first half hour till after midday before selling off to close with a small inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA. Momentum remains upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 89.1%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial was volatile in the first half hour after market open before rallying upward. It pulled back slightly to close with a small bullish marubozu candle above all its moving averages. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is still in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 was volatile throughout the day and closed with a small doji candle above its 8 EMA. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 88.8%.

Nasdaq 100 probed for the bottom in the first half hour after market open. It the surged upward and pulled back slightly near the end of the day to close with a spinning top doji candle above all its moving averages. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 99.2%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 probed for its bottom before rallying upward till the latter part of the day. It pulled back at the end of the day to close with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 92.8%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Continue reading 29 November 2016 – Oil volatility continues

28 November 2016 – Quiet day on Black Monday

It was a quiet day of trading on Black Monday after the Thanksgiving weekend. Stocks pulled back on profit taking after the indices had been achieving all-time highs. This has been achieved since the Presidential election three weeks ago. The sectors that have been leading the market up are the financials and the industrials. The under-performing sectors such as utilities made gains. Bonds and gold prices made gains as well.

Dow Transportation sold off on market open and reached its bottom of the day by late morning. It pulled back slightly till the end of the day and closed with a small bearish candle above all its moving averages at 8962.46. Momentum remains sharply upwards. Volumetric buying pressure is at 96.1%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial was volatile throughout the day and closed with a small doji candle above all its moving averages at 19097.90. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 99.9%. The index is still in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 sold off on market open and continued trading downward throughout the day. It closed with a bearish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA at 1329.827. Momentum is upward and in a sharp uptrend. Volumetric buying pressure is at 94.2%.

Nasdaq 100 had a volatile day and traded within a range. It closed with a doji candle above its moving averages at 4857.0209. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 98.1%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 range traded throughout the day and sold down in the last hour. It closed with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA at 2201.72. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 91.7%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Continue reading 28 November 2016 – Quiet day on Black Monday

25 November 2016 – Thanksgiving market


We had a short week due to the Thanksgiving holidays and Friday was a shortened week. The indices had been making all time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial, Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 continued on their journey of all-time highs.

WTI sold down on Friday and closed just below $46 per barrel. High yield bond had a slightly positive day and is now back in the uptrend. The dollar index closed slightly lower in a steep uptrend.

Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation It closed with a bullish marubozu candle above its moving averages in a steep uptrend. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial closed with a bullish marubozu candle in a steep uptrend. It formed a doji sandwich candle pattern and closed at an all time high of 19152.14. Momentum is upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 continued its sharp uptrend and closed with a bullish marubozu candle at 1347.2025 which is a historic all time high. Momentum is sharply upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%.

Nasdaq 100 closed with a bullish candle at 4870.017. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 closed with a bullish marubozu candle above all its moving averages. Momentum is sharply upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. It is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

Continue reading 25 November 2016 – Thanksgiving market

23 November 2016 – Thanksgiving highs!

The major indices of Dow Industrial, Russell 2000 and S&P 500 marched higher heading into the Thanksgiving Day. The three indices closed at all time historic highs. Dow Transportation closed above 9000 which is the highest for the last 2 years. US market will be closed on Thursday and close early at 1 pm EST on Friday.

The dollar index continued its march higher. WTI Oil futures traded sideways and is above $48 per barrel. Gold futures broke its support at $1200 per ounce.

FED minutes from prior meeting showed that many members judged that risks to economic and financial stability could increase over time if the labor market overheated appreciably or expressed concern that an extended period of low interest rates risked intensifying incentives for investors to reach for yield. This could potentially leads to mispricing of risk and misallocation of capital. Fed fund futures are now fully pricing in a December rate hike by the FOMC.

Dow Transportation surged on market open and continued trading upward till the end of the day. It closed with a bullish marubozu candle at 9000.04 and above all its moving averages. Momentum remains sharply upwards. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial surged on market open and continued trading upward till the end of the day. It closed with a bullish marubozu candle above its moving averages and made new all-time historic high at 19083.76. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 99.9%. The index is still in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 probed for the bottom in the first half hour after market open before reversing sharply upward. It continued its surge upward till the end of the day and closed with a bullish candle above all its moving averages. Momentum is upward and in a sharp uptrend. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%.

Nasdaq 100 range traded throughout the day and closed with a small doji candle at 4853.8621. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 97.8%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 surged upward on market open and broke to new historic high at 2204.8. It closed with a bullish marubozu candle above all its moving averages. Momentum is upward and in a sharp uptrend. Volumetric buying pressure is at 99.9%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

Continue reading 23 November 2016 – Thanksgiving highs!

22 November 2016 – Ever higher!

The indices carried on ever higher with new historic highs in the Dow Jones Transportation, Dow Jones Industrial, Russell 2000 and S&P 500. The year end rally continues and the major indices traded to new all-time highs for a second consecutive session. The Dow Industrial closed above 19000 for the first time ever while the S&P 500 topped 2,200. Gold made slight gains as well as bonds. The dollar traded sideways.

Markets have a full day of trading tomorrow, but will be closed Thursday to celebrate Thanksgiving and markets close 1:00 PM on Friday.

Dow Transportation shot up in the first few minutes of trading but was met with selling and it traded downward but ended the day with a doji candle above its moving averages. Momentum remains sharply upwards. Volumetric buying pressure is at 97.6%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial range traded till late morning before surging upward. It made new historic high at 19043.9 and crossed the 19,000 level. Momentum remains upward. Short term volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is still in a monthly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 range traded till midday before breaking upwards. It hit a historic high of 1334.83 and closed with a bullish marubozu candle above all its moving averages. Momentum is upward and in a sharp uptrend. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%.

Nasdaq 100 gapped up and range traded for the day. It closed with a doji candle above all its moving averages. Momentum is upward. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is in a monthly Squeeze.

S&P 500 range traded in the first hour before selling down till late morning. Buyers came in and it surged till the end of the day and closed with a small high closing doji candle above all its moving averages. Volumetric buying pressure is at 100%. The index is in a weekly and monthly Squeeze.

Continue reading 22 November 2016 – Ever higher!