7 February 2020 – Weekly Review – Volatility is in the air, corona virus and GDP

Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation ($DJT) closed at 10857.73 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 421.54. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 52.4. The index is in its monthly Squeeze.    

Dow Industrial ($DJI) closed at 29102.51 with a big bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1,152.02. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 64.2.

Russell 2000 closed at 1656.7783 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 75.113. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 57.5.       

Nasdaq 100 closed at 9401.0972 with a big bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 461.732. Fractal Chaos Band – Above its FCB upper and lower band. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 78.

S&P 500 closed at 3327.71 with a big bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 122.44. Fractal Chaos Band – Above its FCB Upperband. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 69.4.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $50.34 per barrel with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 2.89. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downwards. RSI – 36.6.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1573.8 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 47.4. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 66.9.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 162’15 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.6875. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 58.6.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 87.97 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.025. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Short cycle – positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 58.3.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 98.699 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.356. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 56.7.

EUR/USD closed at 1.0940 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0153. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 41.2.   

USD/JPY closed at 109.76 with a bullish candle on its 200 SMA and above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.8179. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 54.1.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLK, SPX, SPY, XLP, /ES, XLY, XLU, XLF, XLI, XLV, XLB and XLE respectively.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLP, SPX, SPY, XLK, /ES, XLY, XLF, XLU, XLI, XLV, XLB and XLE respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards showing accumulation. Skew is at 132.21. Vix is at 15.47 and Vix futures 16.07.

The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment is slightly bullish and the other market internals are giving mixed signals. Skew is normal. The signs are that this market is weakening. High Yield bond is still relatively bullish. Transportation and Russell 2000 are showing weakness. The prognosis is for the market to come under selling pressure.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.