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6 May 2020 – ADP 20.2 M jobs loss
Summary (The Week Ahead)
$DJT – DownTrend and in preliminary Squeeze. /YM – DownTrend and in a Squeeze. /RTY – UpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. /NQ – UpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. /ES – UpTrend and in a Squeeze.
The indices are set up to make a big move due to the volatility compressions shown in them.
/CL – UpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. /GC – DownTrend and in a Squeeze. /ZB – DownTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. HYG – DownTrend.
$DXY – UpTrend and in a Squeeze. EUR/USD – DownTrend. USD/JPY – DownTrend.
Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Bullish. Put/Call ratio – 0.828. Market Breadth – sloping downward showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis – sloping downward and showing distribution. Long term volume trend is still showing accumulation. Vix – 34.12 and Vix Futures – 34.35. Skew – 128.59.
There are Squeezes in the indices indicating that a big move is coming up.
Bond market pulled back as the FED signalled an interest rates. Gold pulled back as well even as the indices pulled back. Market Internals have changed its bias to the downside. HYG which is the ETF for high yield bonds is trading sideways with a bearish bias. The prognosis is for a range-trading market with increased in volatility.
Intermarket Analysis
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $24.09. Daily trading range – 3.5. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 53.8. Crude oil is trending upwards.
Gold (/GC) closed at 1686.1. Daily trading range – 33.6. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 49.7. Gold is pulling back in a Squeeze.
Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 10.95. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Neutral. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 44.3.
Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 179’01. Daily trading range – 2.2187. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 49.1. It is in a preliminary Squeeze.
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 78.80. Daily trading range – 0.655. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 49.1. HYG is trending sideways.
Relative Strength – Sectors.
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLK, XLV, /ES, SPX, SPY, XLB, XLP, XLE, XLU, XLI and XLF.
On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLV, XLK, XLY, SPX, SPY, /ES, XLP, XLB, XLU, XLI, XLE and XLF.
To Your Wealth!
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