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5 May 2020 – Squeezes in the Indices

Summary (The Week Ahead)
$DJTDownTrend and in preliminary Squeeze. /YMUpTrend and in a Squeeze. /RTYUpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. /NQUpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. /ESUpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze.

The indices are set up to make a big move due to the volatility compression.

/CL UpTrend and in a preliminary Squeeze. /GCUpTrend and in a Squeeze. /ZB – Sideways and in a preliminary Squeeze. HYGUpTrend.

$DXYUpTrend and in a Squeeze. EUR/USDUpTrend. USD/JPY – DownTrend.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Bullish. Put/Call ratio – 0.754. Market Breadth – sloping upward showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis – sloping downward and showing distribution. Long term volume trend is still showing accumulation. Vix – 33.61 and Vix Futures – 34.94. Skew – 128.26.

There are Squeezes in the indices indicating that a big move is coming up. The bias is to the UPSIDE.

Bond market is trading sideways since the FED stepped in to support it. Short term market Internals are giving mixed signals but term signals are still supportive of a bullish bias. The HYG which is the ETF for high yield bonds is trading sideways. The prognosis is for a range-trading market with compressed volatility but with a bullish bias.

Intermarket Analysis
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $25.28. Daily trading range – 4.36. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 53.8. Crude oil is now trending upwards.

Gold (/GC) closed at 1710.8. Daily trading range – 25.7. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 53.9. Gold is trending sideways and in a compressed volatility.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 11.17. Fractal Chaos Band – closed above its FCB. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 48.7.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 180’07. Daily trading range – 1.875. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Neutral. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 51.5. It is in a preliminary Squeeze.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 79.25. Daily trading range – 0.68. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 50.9. HYG is trending sideways.

Relative Strength – Sectors.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P ETF 500 sectors are XLV, XLK, XLY, /ES, SPX, SPY, XLB, XLP, XLU, XLE, XLI and XLF.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLV, XLK, XLY, XLP, SPX, SPY, /ES, XLB, XLU, XLI, XLE and XLF.  


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