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1 March 2018 – Indices falls, fundamental prevails

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10330.72 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 193.29. BuySellTimer is in its negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction – Sell/Sell.

Dow Industrial closed at 24608.98 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 742.79. BuySellTimer is in negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction – Sell/Sell.

Russell 2000 closed at 1507.39 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 28.17. BuySellTimer is in negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction – Sell/Sell.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6750.54 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 204.94. BuySellTimer is in its negative cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and negative slope. Market direction – Sell/Sell.

S&P 500 closed at 2677.67 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 71.24. BuySellTimer is in its negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and positive slope. Market direction – Sell/Sell.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $61.34 per barrel with a high closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.65. BuySellTimer is in a negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction – Sell/Sell.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1318.1 with a high closing doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 18.7. BuySellTimer is in a negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction – Sell/Sell. Gold is in its daily Squeeze.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF gapped up and closed at 19.46 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.265. BuySellTimer is in a positive cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and positive slope. Market direction – Buy/Buy.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 16.63 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.255. BuySellTimer is in its negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction – Sell/Sell.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 144’11 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.375. BuySellTimer is in its positive cycle. TSI is in its negative cycle and positive slope. Market direction – Sell/Sell.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped down and closed at 85.57 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.66. BuySellTimer is in a negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction – Sell/Sell.

Currencies
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 90.243 with a big bearish candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.725. TSI is in a negative cycle and positive slope. Market direction – Buy/Buy.

EUR/USD closed at 1.2265 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0118. TSI is in a positive cycle and negative slope. Market direction – Sell/Sell.

USD/JPY closed at 106.22 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.046. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction – Sell/Sell.

6S(Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0629 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0089. BuySellTimer is in a negative cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and negative slope. Market direction is Bearish/Bearish. Swiss franc is in a Squeeze.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLF and XLY respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLY and XLF respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment has turned bearish. Market breadth is showing nett decliners to gainers. Volume accumulation/distribution is showing distribution. Vix is at 22.47 and 20.25. Skew is at 136.54.

The Week Ahead
Vix and Vix futures continues to be in backwardation and both have increased with the market pullback. Skew is within the normal range. Market breadth has deteriorated and there is distribution in Volume. The prognosis more pullback but it is not expected to be severe. Overall distribution is not yet large and prolonged.

Futures (daily chart):
ES – Sell/Sell
NQ – Sell/Sell
YM – Sell/Sell
GC – Sell/Sell
CL – Sell/Sell

Stocks Buy Watchlist
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Penny Stocks BreakOut
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