Bursa KLCI

19 June 2018 – Trade Wars and market rolls over

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10863.30 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 225.57. BuySellTimer is in its negative cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and negative slope. Market direction – Intermediate – Sell. Current – Sell/Sell. It is a daily and weekly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial gapped down and closed at 24700.21 with a hammer candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA andJust above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 195.84. BuySellTimer is in a negative cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and negative slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Sell. Current – Sell/Sell. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 closed at 1693.4462 with a dragonfly doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 18.05. BuySellTimer is in a positive cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and positive slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy. There is a negative divergence.

Nasdaq 100 gapped down and closed at 7228.04 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 91.9629. BuySellTimer is in its positive cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and negative slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy. There is a negative divergence.

S&P 500 gapped down and closed at 2762.59 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 21.86. BuySellTimer is in its negative cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and negative slope. Market direction – Intermediate – Buy. Current – Sell/Sell. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Strong Sell signal.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $64.9 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.51. BuySellTimer is in a negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Sell. Current – Sell/Sell. Strong Sell signal. Positive divergence.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1277 with a bearish spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 14.2. BuySellTimer is in a negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Sell. Current – Sell/Sell. Strong Sell signal.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF gapped down and closed at 18.10 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.41. BuySellTimer is in a negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Sell. Current – Sell/Sell. Strong Sell.

Commodities (DBC) ETF gapped down and closed at 17.24 with a small spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.155. BuySellTimer is in its negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Sell. Current – Sell/Sell. Strong Sell.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 144 with an inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 EMA. Daily trading range was 1.0625. BuySellTimer is in its positive cycle. TSI is in its positive cycle and positive slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy. It is in a daily and weekly Squeeze. Strong Buy.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped down and closed at 85.99 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.16. BuySellTimer is in a positive cycle. TSI is in a positive cycle and positive slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Strong Buy.

Currencies
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.014 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.762. TSI is in a positive cycle and positive slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1588 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0113. TSI is in a negative cycle and negative slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Sell. Current – Sell/Sell. Strong Sell.

USD/JPY closed at 110.04 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.021. TSI is in a positive cycle and negative slope. Market direction: Intermediate – Sell. Current – Neutral/Neutral.

6S(Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0138 with a small doji candle on its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.006. BuySellTimer is in a negative cycle. TSI is in a negative cycle and flat. Market direction: Intermediate – Buy. Current – Buy/Buy.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLY, XLV, XLK, XLU and XLP.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLY and XLK respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth is sloping downward. Accumulation/ Distribution has turned downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 139.35. Vix is at 13.35 and Vix futures is at 14.25.

The Week Ahead
Market internals continue to weaken. Market breadth is sloping downwards. Volume accumulation/distribution is showing distribution. Skew is normal. Vix remains about 13 low but Vix futures is going up in anticipation of a pullback in the market. Trade Wars is escalating and that has created uncertainties. . The prognosis is for the market to pullback or trade sideways.

Futures Summary(daily chart):
ES – Intermediate Buy. Short term Sell/Sell. Weekly Squeeze. Strong Sell.
NQ – Intermediate Buy. Short term Buy/Buy. Negative divergence.
YM – Intermediate Sell. Short term Sell/Sell. Weekly Squeeze. Strong Sell.
GC – Intermediate Sell. Short term Sell/Sell. Exited daily. Weekly Squeeze. Strong Sell.
CL – Intermediate Sell. Short term Sell/Sell. Divergence.

 

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