Bursa KLCI

5 July 2018 – Volatility after the 4th July

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10426.62 with a hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 102.87. Intermediate Cycle is in a negative and negative slope. Short Term Cycle is in its negative and rising slope. Market direction – Sell. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial closed at 24356.74 with a hammer candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 195.36. Intermediate Cycle is negative and positive slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Sell. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 closed at 1679.4823 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.01. Intermediate Cycle is positive and positive slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7101.05 with a hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 80.30. Intermediate Cycle is positive and negative slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

S&P 500 closed at 2736.61 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and 50 SMA and on its 21 EMA. Daily trading range was 21.78. Intermediate Cycle is negative and negative slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $73.12 per barrel with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.37. Intermediate Cycle is positive and positive slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1258.8 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 10.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and positive slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.66 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.135. Intermediate Cycle is negative and negative slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.39 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.16. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 145’19 with a high closing spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 EMA. Daily trading range was 0.9375. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped up and closed at 85.11 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.24. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 94.398 with a small spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.4120. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1687 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0051. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Sell.

USD/JPY closed at 110.62 with a small spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.4359. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

6S(Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0125 with a small bearish candle on its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0044. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is negative and flat. Market direction: Sell. It is in a daily Squeeze.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLP, XLV, XLE, XLK and XLB.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLK, XLY, XLU, XLV and XLP respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers to losers. Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upwards showing nett accumulation. Skew is at 139.86. Vix is at 14.97 and Vix futures is at 15.75.

The Week Ahead
Market internals i4 regaining strength going into the earnings season. Skew is normal. Vix and Vix futures have decreased above 16. Volatility is expected to continue. Market sentiment is bullish. Uncertainty continues with a possibility of a Global Trade War. The prognosis is for continuing volatility and quick pullbacks.

Futures Summary(daily chart):
ES – Intermediate Sell. Short term Buy/Buy. Weekly Squeeze.
NQ – Intermediate Sell. Short term Buy/Buy.
YM – Intermediate Sell. Short term Neutral/Sell. Weekly Squeeze.
GC – Intermediate Sell. Short term Buy/Buy.
CL – Intermediate Buy. Short term Neutral/Buy.

 

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