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10 July 2018 – Volatility continues, market pulled back

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10655.23 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 136.48. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial closed at 24919.66 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 138.41. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 closed at 1695.62 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.2. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7282.6 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 40.31. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

S&P 500 gapped up and closed at 2793.84 with a small bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 9.34. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $74.21 per barrel with a small doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.05. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1255.8 with a doji candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 13.3. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.62 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.16. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.52 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA and on its 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.15. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 145’09 with a small bullish candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.375. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped up and closed at 85.47 with a small inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA and on its 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.12. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Neutral. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 94.154 with a small low closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.4569. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1743 with a small high closing doji candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0072. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral.

USD/JPY closed at 110.98 with an inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.566. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. It is in a daily Squeeze. Market direction: Buy.

6S(Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0137 with a doji candle on its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0053. Intermediate Cycle is positive and flat. Short Cycle is negative and flat. Market direction: Neutral. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Relative Strength – Sectors</b On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLE, XLV, XLK, XLI, XLP and XLB.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLY, XLE, XLV, XLP and XLU respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is slightly bullish. Market breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers to losers. Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upwards showing nett accumulation. Skew is at 139.26. Vix is at 12.64 and Vix futures is at 14.17.

The Week Ahead
Market internals continue to show strength. Vix has come down but the Vix futures remain above 14 indicating that it is priced for future volatility. Skew is normal. The prognosis is for the uptrend to continue but with the possibility of volatility. The potential for a Trade War remains.

Futures Summary(Daily chart):
ES – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Buy. Weekly Squeeze.
NQ – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Buy.
YM – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Rising. Current – Positive/Rising. Market direction – Buy. Weekly Squeeze.
GC – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Rising. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Buy.
CL – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Buy.

To YOUR wealth!

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