Bursa KLCI

16 July 2018 – Indices rolling over, World Trade disputes continue

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10435.52 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 275.68. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial closed at 25064.36 with a small bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 92.77. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 closed at 1678.544 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 15.98. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7357.899 with a small bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 44.297. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

S&P 500 closed at 2798.43 with a small spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 10.32. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $68 per barrel with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 3.29. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1241 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 7.5. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.33 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.195. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell.

Commodities (DBC) ETF gapped down and closed at 16.67 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.22. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 145’02 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.0312. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped up and closed at 85.55 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and on its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.12. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 94.511 with a bearish candle intertwined between its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.366. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1710 with a small candle intertwined between its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0049. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral.

USD/JPY closed at 112.27 with a small inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.358. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

6S(Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0031 with a bearish candle intertwined with its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.008. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Neutral. It is in a daily Squeeze.

Relative Strength – Sectors</b On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLV, XLK, XLY and XLF.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLY, XLV and XLU respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upwards showing nett accumulation. Skew is at 148.16. Vix is at 12.83 and Vix futures is at 12.98.

The Week Ahead</b3
Market internals have mixed signal but still has strength. Vix and Vix futures are low indicating the expectation of less volatility now and in the short term. Skew is very high at 148.16 indicating high probability of a quick pullback. Dow Transportation and Russell 2000 is leading the indices downwards. The prognosis is for the indices to roll over.

Futures Summary(Daily chart):
ES – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Buy.
NQ – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Buy.
YM – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Rising. Market direction – Buy. Weekly Squeeze.
RTY – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Neutral.
GC – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Falling. Current – Negative/Rising. Market direction – Sell.
CL – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell.

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