Bursa KLCI

18 July 2018 – Powell testimony keeps indices up!

Indices
Dow Transportation gapped up and closed at 10702.23 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and on its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 204.47. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial closed at 25119.29 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 114.2. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 closed at 1691.8687 with a small bullish hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 12.8. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Sell.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7390.1259 with a small bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 42.887. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

S&P 500 closed at 2815.62 with a small hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 10.87. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $67.93 per barrel with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.72. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1227.3 with a small doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 8.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.28 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.11. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 16.84 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.26. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 144’26 with a bearish ‘rolling pin’ candle below its 8 EMA and on its 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.7812. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a daily Squeeze.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.62 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.155. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.087 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.449. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in the Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1637 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0062. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

USD/JPY closed at 112.86 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.424. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

6S(Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0059 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0051. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Sell. It has exited its daily Squeeze.

Relative Strength – Sectors</b On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLF, XLK, XLI, XLU and XLY.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLY and XLV respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upwards showing nett accumulation. Skew is at 154.25. Vix is at 12.10 and Vix futures is at 13.97.

The Week Ahead&lt
Market internals have mixed signal but still has strength. Vix remains low but Vix futures has come down below 14 which means the market does not have much concerns. Skew has increased to over 150 which is extremely huge! This is signalling some major short term instability for the indices. Fed Chairman has been talking up the market and hence its short-term strength. The prognosis is for a potential volatile pullback in the indices.

Futures Summary(Daily chart):
ES – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Rising. Market direction – Buy.
NQ – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Buy.
YM – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Rising. Market direction – Buy. Weekly Squeeze.
RTY – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Rising. Market direction – Sell.
GC – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell.
CL – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell.

To YOUR wealth!

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