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23 July 2018 – A new normal, a permanently high SKEW!!

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10813.55 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 98.8. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Dow Industrial closed at 25044.29 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 98.12. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Russell 2000 closed at 1698.41 with a small spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 11.44. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7371.78 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 75.48. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral.

S&P 500 closed at 2806.98 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 13.47. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $67.8 per barrel with a low closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.71. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1222.4 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 13. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.48 with a small doji candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.1036. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.13. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Neutral.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 142’31 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.5937. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.59 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.1. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 94.63 with a bullish candle intertwined with its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.509. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in the Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1691 with a bearish candle intertwined with its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0066. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is positive and flat. Market direction: Sell.

USD/JPY closed at 111.33 with a high closing doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.79. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0012 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0041. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction: Buy.

Relative Strength – Sectors</b On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLF, XLV and XLI .

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLY and XLV respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is rather bullish. Market breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping downwards showing nett distribution. Skew is at 153.78. Vix is at 12.62 and Vix futures is at 14.00.

The Week Ahead
The indices have gained but market internals are showing weakening. Market sentiment is weakening. Vix is below 13 and Vix futures is at 14 which indicates that future volatility is higher. Skew is exceptional high and has been high for more than a week. This market is exceptional and is vulnerable to a quick and large pullback. The prognosis is for volatility to persist in the indices.

Futures Summary(Daily chart):
ES – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Buy.
NQ – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Rising. Market direction – Buy.
YM – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Neutral. Weekly Squeeze.
RTY – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Rising. Market direction – Buy.
GC – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell.
CL – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Falling. Current – Negative/Rising. Market direction – Sell.

To YOUR wealth!

Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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