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26 July 2018 – Uptrend and holding

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10984.86 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 206.49. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial gapped up and closed at 25527.07 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 124.08. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1695.36 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 18.18. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7430.50 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 88. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2837.44 with a small inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 10.31. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $69.54 per barrel with a small doji candle above its 8 EMA and 50 SMA and on its 21 EMA. Daily trading range was 1. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Buy.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1222.1 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 14.6. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF gapped up and closed at 17.55 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.273. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Buy.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.32 with a small bullish candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.08. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – buy.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 142’22 with a low closing doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.6875. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.94 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.11. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 94.777 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.711. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in the Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1641 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0103. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is negaive and flat. Market direction: Neutral. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

USD/JPY closed at 110.96 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.661. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0101 with a bearish candle intertwined with its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0051. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Relative Strength – Sectors</b On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLI, XLF and XLK .

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLV and XLY respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is bullish. Market breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upwards showing nett accumulation. Skew is at 142.18. Vix is at 12.14 and Vix futures is at 13.85.

The Week Ahead
Market Internals are giving out mixed signals which means that the indices are going up but without conviction. Skew remains high. Vix is below 13 and Vix futures remains above 14 indicating that the market is pricing in near future volatility. The prognosis is for a continuing strength in the indices but with volatility.

ES – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Rising. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.
NQ – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish
YM – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Rising. Market direction – Buy. Weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.
RTY – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.
GC – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Rising. Current – Negative/Rising. Market direction – Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.
CL – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Falling. Current – Negative/Rising. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Buy.

To YOUR wealth!

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