Bursa KLCI

10 August 2018 – The Uptrend Continues


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 11090.63 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 245.04. Intermediate Cycle is positive with rising slope. Short term cycle is positive with rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25313.14 with a low closing spinning top doi candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 469.84. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Russell 2000 closed at 1686.804 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 24.7552. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7408.304 with an inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 116.79. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and rising. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2833.28 with a low closing spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 37.62. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $67.75 per barrel with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.78. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1219.2 with a small spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 12.9. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.21 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.51. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.04 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.36. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 144’11 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 2.344. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Neutral. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.89 with a gravestone doji candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.41. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) broke out and closed at 96.266 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.458. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

EUR/USD broke down and closed at 1.1407 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.024. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 110.92 with a spinning top doji candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.013. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Neutral. It is in a monthly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) closed at 1.0076 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0088. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLK, XLV, XLU, XLI, XLY, XLP and XLE respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLU, XLP, XLY, XLK and XLF respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Market Volume is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 149.20. Vix is at 13.16 and Vix futures 13.57.

The Week Ahead
Market internals are showing some weakening. There is some distribution and market breadth is deteriorating even as there are more accumulation. Vix and Vix futures are higher above 13 and Skew is extremely elevated. The prognosis is for this market to come under selling pressure.

Futures (Weekly Chart):
ES – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Rising. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. DonChian Bias – Bullish
NQ – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Rising. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. DonChian Bias – Bullish
YM – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Rising. Current – Positive/Rising. Market direction – Buy. Weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.
RTY – Intermediate Cycle – Positive/Falling. Current – Positive/Falling. Market direction – Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral. DonChian Bias – Bullish.
GC – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. DonChian Bias – Bearish
CL – Intermediate Cycle – Negative/Falling. Current – Negative/Falling. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Buy. DonChian Bias – Neutral

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