Bursa KLCI

23 August 2018 – S&P 500 struggles to reach 2900

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 11260.36 with a bearish candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 102.75. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25656.98 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 154.54. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Russell 2000 closed at 1717.0512 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 10.4876. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7413.8381 with a low closing doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 60.47. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2856.98 with a low closing doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 14.75. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $67.84 per barrel with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.8. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1191.8 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 13.2. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 16.99 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.14. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.11 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.18. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 145’15 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.375. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.23 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.13. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a daily and weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.65 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.081. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1536 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA and on its 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0069. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 111.27 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.796. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0161 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0045. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction: Buy. It is in a daily and weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLV, XLY, XLI, XLE, XLU and XLB.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLU, XLP, XLY, XLI, XLK and XLF respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is Bullish. Market breadth is rising showing more gainers to losers. Volume Accumulation/ Distribution is rising and shows nett accumulation. Skew is at 147.38. Vix is at 12.41 and Vix futures is at 14.15.

The Week Ahead
Skew continues to be elevated for the past few weeks. Vix is below 13 and Vix futures has risen to above 14 indicating a near term volatility. Market internals are showing strength. The prognosis is for a bullish bias in the indices.

To YOUR wealth!

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