Bursa KLCI

4 August 2018 – Indices winding up for the next leg up

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 11319.49 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 48.49. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25952.48 with a high closing spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 165.82. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1733.377 with a bearish candle with a long lower wick above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 18.6. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7622.3224 with a high closing spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 62.105. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

S&P 500 closed at 2896.72 with a high closing doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 15.05. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $69.37 per barrel with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.94. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1197.1 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 14.6. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.05 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.2511. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Bullish. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.28 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.18. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 143’08 with a bullish candle below its 8 EM, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.125. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Bearish. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped down and closed at 85.81 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and on its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.21. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.414 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.599. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1581 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0089. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and falling. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

USD/JPY closed at 111.40 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.635. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a Weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0276 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0089. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLY, XLY, XLK, XLI and XLE.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLU, XLK, XLI, XLY, XLP and XLF respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment is rather Bullish. Market breadth has flattened. Volume Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping downward showing some distribution. Skew is at 142.81. Vix is at 13.16 and Vix futures is at 14.35.

The Week Ahead
Market internals are showing some weakening. Market sentiment is rather bullish. Skew is elevated. Vix has risened. The September month tends to be a weak month. The prognosis is for more volatility for this month.

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