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7 September 2018 – A pullback and a rest for the indices


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 11347.54 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 197.51. Intermediate Cycle is positive with rising slope. Short term cycle is positive with rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25916.54 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 267.73. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1713.1799 with a bearish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 34.155. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7430.2607 with a big bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 242.46. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2871.68 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 36.06. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $67.86 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and on its 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 4.54. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1201.8 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 17.6. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.10 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.319. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.15 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.45. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 142’16 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.7812. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped down and closed at 85.70 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.3. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Neutral. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.339 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.8659. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1554 with a low closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0128. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 111.05 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.1419. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Neutral. It is in a monthly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) closed at 1.0327 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0129. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a daily and weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLI, XLY, XLV, XLB, XLF, XLP and XLU respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLU, XLI, XLF, XLP, XLK and XLY respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 145.87. Vix is at 14.88 and Vix futures 15.45.

The Week Ahead
Market internals are weakening. Vix is now above 14 and Vix futures is above 15 and both have risen which means that market participants are hedging for more volatility. Skew is elevated. The prognosis is that the market is bracing itself for more volatility and pullback.

To YOUR wealth!

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