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21 September 2018 – A good week for indices and off to all-time highs


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 11532.56 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 216.07. Intermediate Cycle is positive with rising slope. Short term cycle is positive with rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 26743.50 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 738.81. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1712.3158 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 23.867. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7531.072 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 176.07. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2929.67 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 54.75. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $70.71 per barrel with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.51. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Neutral.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1203.3 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 19.8. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and rising. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.08 with a high closing doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.28. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and rising. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.49 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.469. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 140’15 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 2.25. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.24 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.43. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Neutral. It is in a Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 94.216 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA and on its 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.164. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. It is in a Weekly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1751 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0184. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

USD/JPY closed at 112.54 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.209. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and rising. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a monthly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) closed at 1.0515 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0169. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in monthly Squeeze. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLI, XLE, XLB, XLV, XLP and XLF respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLI and XLF respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards showing accumulation. Skew is at 141.55. Vix is at 11.68 and Vix futures 14.3.

The Week Ahead
Market internals are sending mix message. Market breadth is weakening with more losers than gainers and accumulation is gathering on fewer and fewer stocks. Vix is below 12 and Vix futures is above 14 which means that traders are prepared for near term volatility. Skew is back to normal level. The prognosis is for a near term volatile market with a bullish bias.

To YOUR wealth!

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