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3 October 2018 – Volatilities continues with divergence

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 11342.96 with an inverted hammer candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 133.79. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a daily Squeeze.

Dow Industrial closed at 26828.39 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 177.87. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1671.29 with a bullish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 21.126. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7637.426 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 51.298. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

S&P 500 closed at 2925.51 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 18.5. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Neutral. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $76.22 per barrel with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.33. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is Overbought.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1201.1 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and on its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 11.9. Intermediate Cycle is negative and flat. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a daily Squeeze.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.18 with a bearish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and on its 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.22. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 18.37 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.325. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is Overbought.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 138’05 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.41. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is OverSold.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.00 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.4. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.991 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.86. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1545 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.129. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 114.521 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.018. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is Overbought.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.0147 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0095. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLV, XLI, XLK and XLU.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLI, XLK and XLE respectively.

Market Internals
Market sentiment remains Bullish. Market breadth continues to deteriorate and is showing nett losers to gainers. Volume Accumulation/ Distribution is sloping upwards showing nett contribution. Skew is at 136.33. Vix is at 13.01 and Vix futures is at 14.36.

The Week Ahead
Dow Transportation and Russell 2000 continues to lead the market downwards. The 30 year US Treasury bond continues to collapse. Vix has risen to be above 13 and Vix futures is just above 14. Market internals such as the market breadth continues to deteriorate but Volume accumulation/Distribution continues to show accumulation. There seems to be a divergence in the market internals. Skew is normal. Is the collapse in the US Treasury bond the canary in the coal mine? The prognosis is to trade with caution.

Gold did not rebound and is trending flat around the USD1200 per ounce.

To YOUR wealth!

Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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