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Z5 Fri, 26 January 2024

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Z5 Tues, 23 January 2024

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Z5 Fri, 19 January 2024

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Z5 Fri, 12 January 2024

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Z5 Wed, 10 January 2024

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Z5 Tue, 9 January 2024

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Z5 Mon, 8 January 2024

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Z5 Fri, 5 January 2024

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Z5 Thur, 4 January 2024

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Z5 Wed, 3 January 2024

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Z5 Tue, 2 January 2024

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Z5 Fri, 29 December 2023

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Z5 Thur, 28 December 2023

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Z5 Wed, 27 December 2023

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Z5 Tue, 26 December 2023

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23 October 2018 – Down Trend continues, Late day rally

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10237.02 with a bearish “hammer” candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 371.42. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Dow Industrial gapped down and closed at 25191.43 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 548.62. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1526.5874 with a hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 38.465. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7118.6745 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 215.57. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 gapped down and closed at 2740.69 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 64.45. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $66.09 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 3.92. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1233.2 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 18.5. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.66 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.2. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 17.38 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.45. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 138’04 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.5312. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bulish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 84.94 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.28. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias- Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.951 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.351. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is in a Weekly Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1469 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0013. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 112.81 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.8859. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.01 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0033. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLP, XLK, XLB and XLY.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLP, XLK, XLV, XLB and XLY respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is slightly bullish. Market Breadth continues to slope downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Accumulation/Distribution is sloping downwards which means the market is in distribution. Vix is at 20.71. Vix futures is at 18.75. Skew is at 126.54.

The Week Ahead
Market Breadth is still showing more losers than gainers. The market is in distribution mode. Vix has gone back up above 20. Vix futures is above 18. Vix is in backwardation which means that the market is going through a volatile period and with expectation of the volatility coming down in the near term. Skew is normal. The prognosis is for the volatility to continue.

To YOUR wealth!
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