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14 November 2018 – Bulls are not winning

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10456.61 with a doji candle on its 8 EMA and 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 240.62. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25080.50 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and on its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 565.47. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1502.5055 with a bearish candle pattern below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 23.41. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6769.8726 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 179.9198. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2701.58 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 61.05. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $56 per barrel with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.24. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1211.4 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 19.1. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.28 with a small doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.08. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 16.05 with a small bearish haram candle pattern below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.264. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 138’23 with a big spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.219. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 83.54 with a bearish ‘rolling pin’ candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.65. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias- Bearish.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.987 with a big spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.659. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is in a Weekly Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1307 with a bullish ‘rolling pin’ candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0084. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short Cycle is negative and falling. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 113.60 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.714. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 0.9975 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0063. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short Cycle is negative and rising. Market direction: Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLB, XLI, XLY, XLP, XLF and XLV.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLP, XLB, XLU, XLI, XLY, XLF and XLV respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is falling with more losers than gainers. Volume Accumulation/Distribution is sloping downwards which means the market is in distribution mode. Vix is at 21.25. Vix futures is at 19.62 Skew is at 120.68.

The Week Ahead
Market internals are showing weakness. Market sentiment is bearish. Skew is normal. Vix has increased to above 21 while Vix futures is below 20. It is in backwardation with the expectation that the volatility is short-term. The prognosis is for further market weakness to continue.

To YOUR wealth!
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