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16 November 2018 – Weekly review – Another down week, Some hopes for the bulls


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10583.60 with a high closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 318.85. Intermediate Cycle is negative with falling slope. Short term cycle is negative with falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Dow Industrial closed at 25413.22 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1201.51. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Russell 2000 closed at 1527.5331 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 57.8341. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6867.0153 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 336.7272. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

S&P 500 closed at 2736.27 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 110.26. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $57.03 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 6.53. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1222.0 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 29.4. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short term cycle is negative and rising. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.31 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.27. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising. Short term cycle is negative and rising. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 16.12 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.725. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 139’24 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.938. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 83.27 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.42. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.427 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.296. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish. It is in a Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1421 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0204. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish.

USD/JPY closed at 113.77 with a bearish candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.56. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising. Short term cycle is positive and falling. Market direction:- Buy. Fractal Bias – Bullish.

6S (Swiss Franc) closed at 1.0025 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0131. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell. Fractal Bias – Bearish. It is in monthly Squeeze.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLB, XLI, XLF, XLV and XLY respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLB, XLP, XLI, XLF, XLU, XLV and XLY respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment has turned bullish. Market Breadth is sloping slightly upwards showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping slightly upwards showing accumulation. Skew is at 118.71. Vix is at 18.14 and Vix futures 18.30.

The Week Ahead
Market Internals are showing some strength. Market Sentiment has turned bullish. Vix and Vix futures has dropped below 19. Skew is normal. The prognosis is for volatility but there is a bullish bias.

To YOUR wealth!

Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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