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28

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14 December 2018 – Weekly Review – Bearish end to the week


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 9514.11 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 540.13. Intermediate Cycle is negative with falling slope. Short term cycle is negative with falling slope. Market Fractal direction:- Sell.     

Dow Industrial closed at 24100.51 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 946.92. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. It found support at close. Market direction:- Sell.   

Russell 2000 closed at 1410.8126 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 64.856. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling. Short term cycle is negative and falling. Market direction:- Sell.      

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6594.9632 with a low closing doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 333.335. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.         

S&P 500 closed at 2599.95 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 102.21. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.   

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $51.23 per barrel with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 2.92. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1242.3 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 20.1. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.  

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.33 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.33. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:-  Buy.   

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.45 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.3. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.     

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 142’23 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.656. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 83.16 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.04. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.         

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.424 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.35. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a Squeeze.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1303 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0172. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Sell.       

USD/JPY closed at 113.35 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.471. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.    

6S (Swiss Franc) closed at 1.0112 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0158. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Sell. It is in a monthly Squeeze.  

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLY, XLK, XLP and XLE respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLP, XLV, XLB, XLY, XLK and XLE respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is neutral. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 118.60. Vix is at 21.63 and Vix futures 21.82.

The Week Ahead
Market breadth is bearish. Market Sentiment is neutral and slightly on the bearish side. Vix and Vix futures are both above 21 and remains elevated. The FED is due to raise interest rates this coming week. There is no further positive news that can be expected. The prognosis is for further bearishness and volatility. 

To YOUR wealth!

Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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