17 December 2018 – Interest rate hikes, Government shutdown …
Indices Dow Transportation closed at 9403.53 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 181.54. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell.
Dow Industrial closed at 23592.98 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 643.6299. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell.
Russell 2000 closed at 1378.1438 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 44.3751. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
Nasdaq 100 closed at 6448.3864 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 222.082. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
S&P 500 closed at 2545.94 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 70.59. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
Metals and Commodities WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $49.47 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.83. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
Gold futures (GC) closed at 1249.7 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 12.8. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.
Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.22 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.15. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Buy. It is in a daily and weekly Squeeze.
Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.27 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.27. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
Bonds Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 143’08 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.7812. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 82.62 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.61. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
Currency The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.08 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.046. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a daily and Weekly Squeeze.
EUR/USD closed at 1.1346 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0059. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and flat. Market direction: Neutral.
USD/JPY closed at 112.82 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.838. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.016 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0066. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.
Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLK, XLY and XLE.
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLP, XLV, XLK, XLY and XLE respectively.
Market Internals Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew is at 123.96. Vix is at 24.52 and Vix Futures is at 23.45
The Week Ahead The indices are now trading below its 200 SMA. This is a rather bearish signal which means that trading to the downside is more likely to work compare to trading to the upside. Market internals are showing bearishness. Skew is normal. Vix and Vix futures are elevated above 24 and 23 respectively. The US could experience a market shutdown this week. The prognosis is for continuing bearishness in the market.
To YOUR wealth! Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.
17 December 2018 – Interest rate hikes, Government shutdown …
Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 9403.53 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 181.54. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell.
Dow Industrial closed at 23592.98 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 643.6299. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell.
Russell 2000 closed at 1378.1438 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 44.3751. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
Nasdaq 100 closed at 6448.3864 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 222.082. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
S&P 500 closed at 2545.94 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 70.59. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $49.47 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.83. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
Gold futures (GC) closed at 1249.7 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 12.8. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.
Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.22 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.15. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. Fractal Bias – Buy. It is in a daily and weekly Squeeze.
Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.27 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.27. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 143’08 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.7812. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 82.62 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.61. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.08 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.046. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a daily and Weekly Squeeze.
EUR/USD closed at 1.1346 with a bullish candle on its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0059. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and flat. Market direction: Neutral.
USD/JPY closed at 112.82 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.838. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.
6S (Swiss Franc) – closed at 1.016 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0066. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.
Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLK, XLY and XLE.
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLP, XLV, XLK, XLY and XLE respectively.
Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew is at 123.96. Vix is at 24.52 and Vix Futures is at 23.45
The Week Ahead
The indices are now trading below its 200 SMA. This is a rather bearish signal which means that trading to the downside is more likely to work compare to trading to the upside. Market internals are showing bearishness. Skew is normal. Vix and Vix futures are elevated above 24 and 23 respectively. The US could experience a market shutdown this week. The prognosis is for continuing bearishness in the market.
To YOUR wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.
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