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14 January 2019 – Will Gold or the Indices break upwards?

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 9630.92 with a small bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 126.41. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. 

Dow Industrial closed at 23909.84 with a small bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 230.71. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. 

Russell 2000 closed at 1432.81 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 16.076. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6541.04 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 88.755. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

S&P 500 closed at 2582.61 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 25.85. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.    

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $50.78 per barrel with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.73. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.    

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1291.8 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 8.9. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Agriculture (DBA) ETF closed at 17.16 with small doji candle between its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.12. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.    

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.19 with a small bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and below its 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.17. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.   

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 145’17 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.  

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) gapped down and closed at 83.62 with a small bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.34. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.585 with a small bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.24. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell.      

EUR/USD closed at 1.1467 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0031. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a daily and weekly Squeeze.

USD/JPY closed at 108.14 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.583. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLY, XLI, XLF and XLB.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLE, XLY, XLI, XLF and XLB respectively.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is Negative. Market Breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards and showing accumulation. Skew is at 125.20. Vix is at 19.07 and Vix Futures is at 18.90.   

The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment is Bearish even as the Market Internals are indicating strength. There are squeezes on the indices and they could squeeze upwards or downwards. Oil has reached its 50 SMA and awaiting a break upwards. The prognosis is for a potential pullback in the indices and a break upwards for Gold.

To YOUR wealth!
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