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28 January 2019 – Trade wars, Brexit, Hua Wei and uncertainties

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 9921.59 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 103.97. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. 

Dow Industrial closed at 24528.22 with a small bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 413.26. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction – Buy. 

Russell 2000 closed at 1473.5358 with a small bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 18.0883. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Nasdaq 100 closed at 6697.0868 with a doji candle on its 8 EMA, above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 143.0641. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.

S&P 500 closed at 2643.85 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 40.7. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.    

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $52.09 per barrel with a bearish candle intertwined with its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.31. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.    

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1302.5 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 7.2. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.34 with a tiny candle intertwined with its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.27. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy.   

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 145’02 with a doji candle intertwined with its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.594. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.  

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 84.28 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.34. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 95.757 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.281. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.      

EUR/USD closed at 1.1426 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0053. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

USD/JPY closed at 109.32 with a small bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.41. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLY, XLI, XLE, XLK and XLB.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLF, XLE, XLY, XLI, XLK and XLB respectively.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers to losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards and showing accumulation. Skew is at 123.06. Vix is at 18.87 and Vix Futures is at 19.47.   

The Week Ahead
The US-China Trade will continue to impact the market due to uncertainties. Brexit will add volatility to the currency trade. The US government shutdown is a temporary measure and uncertainties continue. Vix is above 18 and Vix futures has risen to above 19. Skew is normal and market internals are still showing strength. The prognosis is for volatilities to continue.

To YOUR wealth!
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