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28 March 2019 – Poised for a Breakout

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10319.63 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 134.57. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction – Sell.

Dow Industrial closed at 25717.46 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 166.72. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. 

Russell 2000 closed at 1535.1037 with a bullish candle below its 21 EMA, 200 SMA and above its 8 EMA, 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 16.32. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7320.4723 with a doji candle on its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 68.34. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2815.44 with a small bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 20.94. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.    

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $59.51 per barrel with a small bullish hammer candle above its 8EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.36. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.     

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1295 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 24.3. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.89 with a bullish candle above its 50 SMA and below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.17. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.   

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 149’25 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.9375. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.25 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.21. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.207 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.482. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.    

EUR/USD closed at 1.1220 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0047. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

USD/JPY closed at 110.62 with a bullish candle above its 50 SMA and below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.818. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLY, XLE and XLP.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLI, XLY and XLE respectively.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards and showing accumulation. Skew is at 119.25. Vix is at 14.43 and Vix Futures is at 15.60.  

The Week Ahead 
Market Internals continues to show weakness. Skew is normal. Vix is below 15 and Vix futures is below 16. Indices are range trading and waiting for a reason to move decisively up or down. High Yield bond is showing risk on. The prognosis is for a range trading and volatile market but selling pressure persists.

To YOUR wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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