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6 May 2019 – Trump pushes market off the cliff

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10902.01 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 201.87. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Sell.

Dow Industrial closed at 26438.48 with a big bullish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 471. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Term Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction – Sell. 

Russell 2000 closed at 1614.9756 with a big high closing doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 29.53. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Buy. 

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7794.0929 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 182.805. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2932.47 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 47.43. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Mrket direction: Sell.    

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $62.54 per barrel with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 2.91. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1282.3 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA and 200 SMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Daily trading range was 9.3. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.92 with a big bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.17. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short Cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.   

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 148’05 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 1.313. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short Cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction: Buy.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.61 with a big bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.445. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.552 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.243. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction: Sell.    

EUR/USD closed at 1.1197 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.0044. Intermediate Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short Cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction: Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.

USD/JPY closed at 110.74 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range was 0.316. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short Cycle is negati801 and falling slope. Market direction: Sell. 

Relative Strength – Sectors On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLV, XLF, XLK, XLP, XLI and XLY.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLY and XLF respectively.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is slightly bullish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers to gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards and showing accumulation. Skew is at 123.23. Vix is at 15.44 and Vix Futures is at 15.88.   

The Week Ahead 
Market Internals are weakening. The trade talks between China and the USA looks to be unravelling. Skew is normal. Vix is below 16 and Vix futures is below 16 and volatility has increased. Market Sentiment is slightly bullish. The prognosis is for increase in volatility and continuing selling pressure.

To YOUR wealth!
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