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31 May 2019 – Weekly Review – Tariff War escalates to Mexico


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 9738.03 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 441.79. Intermediate Cycle is negative with falling slope. Short term cycle is negative with falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.     

Dow Industrial closed at 24815.04 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 908.12. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.   

Russell 2000 closed at 1465.487 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 58.76. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.      

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7127.9561 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 236.315. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.       

S&P 500 closed at 2752.06 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 89.99. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $53.36 per barrel with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 6.65. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1310.2 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 36.8. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Sell. It is in a weekly Squeeze.   

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 154’00 with a big bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3. Intermediate Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short term cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 84.90 with a big bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.94. Intermediate Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short term cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.         

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.609 with an inverted hammer candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.673. Intermediate Cycle is positive and flat. Short term cycle is positive and flat. Market direction:- Buy.

EUR/USD closed at 1.117 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.0098. Intermediate Cycle is negative and slight rising slope. Short term cycle is negative and slight rising slope. Market direction:- Buy. It is in a weekly Squeeze.       

USD/JPY closed at 108.27 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.664. Intermediate Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short term cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Sell.    

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLU, XLV, XLB, XLY and XLP respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLP, XLF, XLV, XLY and XLU respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 112.65. Vix is at 18.71 and Vix futures 18.20.

The Week Ahead
The week closed much lower as the USA wages tariff wars with China and Mexico. SKEW is normal. Vix is below 19 and Vix futures is below 19. Market internals are showing weaknesses. Market sentiment is bearish. The prognosis is for strong selling pressure in a volatile market.

To YOUR wealth!

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