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14 June 2019 – Weekly Review – Gold moves, indices sideways


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10305.30 with a small bullish marubozu candle on its 8 EMA, above its 200 SMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA. Weekly trading range was 225.07. Long Cycle is negative with falling slope. Medium Cycle is negative with falling slope. Short cycle is negative with rising slope. Market direction:- Down Trend.      

Dow Industrial closed at 26089.61 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 290. Long Cycle is positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Up Trend.   

Russell 2000 closed at 1522.4988 with a small bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 23.76. Long Cycle is negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Weak Up Trend.      

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7479.1115 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 178.28. Long Cycle is positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Up Trend.       

S&P 500 closed at 2886.98 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 37.27. Medium Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Up Trend.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $52.51 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 4.12. Long Cycle is negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Down Trend.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1345.3 with a big spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 38.6. Medium Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Up Trend. It has exited its weekly Squeeze.   

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 154’18 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.948. Long Cycle is positive and rising. Medium Cycle is positive and rising slope. Short cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Up Trend.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.29 with doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.559. Long Cycle is positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short cycle is positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Buy.         

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 97.449 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 1.02. Long Cycle is positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle is positive and falling slope. Short cycle is negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Up Trend.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1210 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.014. Long Cycle is negative and rising slope. Medium Cycle is negative and rising slope. Short cycle is positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Down Trend. It is in a weekly Squeeze.       

USD/JPY closed at 108.54 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 0.642. Long Cycle is negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle is negative and falling slope. Short cycle is negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Down Trend.    

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLB, XLK, XLY and XLP respectively.

On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLB, XLP, XLF, XLK, XLY, XLV and XLU respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is rather bullish. Market Breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards showing accumulation. Skew is at 113.33. Vix is at 15.28 and Vix futures 15.75.

The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment is rather bullish which means the indices will pullback on Monday. Gold and Bond futures are on a strong uptrend. This means that the market is getting rather defensive in preparation for a move downwards. Skew is normal. Vix is below 16 and Vix futures is below 16. The prognosis is for more volatility and a possible pullback in the indices.

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