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19 July 2019 – Weekly Review – A bearish week


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10604.20 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 473.29. Fractal Chaos Band – Within FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 53.6.    

Dow Industrial closed at 27154.20 with a small bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 329.89. Fractal Chaos Band – Above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. It is in a monthly Squeeze. RSI – 61.2.

Russell 2000 closed at 1547.896 with a bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 27.86. Fractal Chaos Band – Within FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 50.4.       

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7834.8968 with a bearish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 142.3. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 60.7.       

S&P 500 closed at 2976.61 with a bearish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 44.71. Fractal Chaos Band – Above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 60.2.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $55.86 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 6.07. Fractal Chaos Band – Within FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1426.5 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 53.1. Fractal Chaos Band – Within FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 154’22 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 2.22. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.59 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.56. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 55.1.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 1.1219 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0084. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 46.1.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1219 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0084. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 46.1.   

USD/JPY closed at 107.79 with a spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.17. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB LowerBand. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and rising. Market direction:- Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 38.3.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK, XLB and XLP respectively.

On a 6-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs that are outperforming the S&P 500 are XLK and XLP respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bullish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 125.50. Vix is at 14.45 and Vix futures 15.58.

The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment continues to be bullish. Market Internals are showing weaknesses. Vix is below 15 and Vix futures is now below 16. Skew is normal. The market is weakness in the face of uncertainties. There are self-inflicted problems with Iran, USA – China Trade war, Brexit and general market weakness in world markets. The prognosis is for more uncertainties and market weakness.

To YOUR wealth!

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