2 August 2019 – Weekly Review – The market turned on Fed interest rate cut and tariffs
Indices (Weekly chart) Dow Transportation closed at 10374.43 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 506.06. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 48.8.
Dow Industrial closed at 26485.01 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1032.43. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium CycleWave – positive and falling. Short cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. It is in a monthly Squeeze. RSI – 53.3.
Russell 2000 closed at 1533.659 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 77.033. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Short cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 48.3.
Nasdaq 100 closed at 7692.8005 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 371.778. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 54.7.
S&P 500 closed at 2932.05 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 111.75. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed below its FCB upperband. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 54.4.
Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts) WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $55.19 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 5.23. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 44.5.
Gold futures (GC) closed at 1452.5 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 49.8. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 77.2.
Bonds (Weekly charts) Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 158’24 with a big bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 4.5312. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 74.3.
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.39 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.08. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 52.2.
Currencies (Weekly charts) The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 98.096 with a low closing doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.036. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 57.8.
EUR/USD closed at 1.1105 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0135. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 41.4.
USD/JPY closed at 106.62 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 2.809. Fractal Chaos Band – Crossed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 35.8.
Relative Strength – Sectors On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLU, XLK, XLB, /ES, SPX, XLP, SPY, XLF, XLY, XLV, XLI and XLE respectively.
On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLU, /ES, SPY, SPX, XLP, XLK, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLV and XLE respectively.
Market Internals Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 117.25. Vix is at 17.61 and Vix futures 17.45.
The Week Ahead Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Internals are weakening. Vix is below 18 and Vix futures is now below 18. Skew is normal. With the escalation in the USA – China trade war, the market has become more even more volatile. Market does not tolerate uncertainties well and as such has sold off. The uncertainties are unlikely to abate soon and as such the market will come under more selling pressure. The prognosis is for more volatility and selling pressure.
To YOUR wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.
2 August 2019 – Weekly Review – The market turned on Fed interest rate cut and tariffs
Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10374.43 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 506.06. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 48.8.
Dow Industrial closed at 26485.01 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1032.43. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. It is in a monthly Squeeze. RSI – 53.3.
Russell 2000 closed at 1533.659 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 77.033. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Short cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 48.3.
Nasdaq 100 closed at 7692.8005 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 371.778. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 54.7.
S&P 500 closed at 2932.05 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 111.75. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed below its FCB upperband. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 54.4.
Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $55.19 per barrel with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 5.23. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 44.5.
Gold futures (GC) closed at 1452.5 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 49.8. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 77.2.
Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 158’24 with a big bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 4.5312. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 74.3.
High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.39 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.08. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 52.2.
Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 98.096 with a low closing doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.036. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 57.8.
EUR/USD closed at 1.1105 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0135. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 41.4.
USD/JPY closed at 106.62 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 2.809. Fractal Chaos Band – Crossed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 35.8.
Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLU, XLK, XLB, /ES, SPX, XLP, SPY, XLF, XLY, XLV, XLI and XLE respectively.
On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLU, /ES, SPY, SPX, XLP, XLK, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLV and XLE respectively.
Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 117.25. Vix is at 17.61 and Vix futures 17.45.
The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Internals are weakening. Vix is below 18 and Vix futures is now below 18. Skew is normal. With the escalation in the USA – China trade war, the market has become more even more volatile. Market does not tolerate uncertainties well and as such has sold off. The uncertainties are unlikely to abate soon and as such the market will come under more selling pressure. The prognosis is for more volatility and selling pressure.
To YOUR wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.
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