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30 August 2019 – Weekly Review – Trade War Intensifies


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation closed at 10,126.98 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 554.08. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 46.5.    

Dow Industrial closed at 26403.28 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 885.72. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. It is in a monthly Squeeze. RSI – 52.7.

Russell 2000 closed at 1494.84 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 54.13. Fractal Chaos Band -Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 45.       

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7690.998 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 282.08. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – negative and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 54.2.     

S&P 500 closed at 2926.46 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 93.32. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 53.6.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $55.16 per barrel with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.93. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and rising. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 45.6.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1529.2 with a bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 39.4 Fractal Chaos Band – Above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 81.4. Gold is extremely overbought on the weekly chart!

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 165’15 with a spinning top doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 3.0312. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 82.2.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 87.16 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.86. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 58.1.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 98.807 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.76. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 58.6.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1151 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.02. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 38.3.   

USD/JPY closed at 106.28 with a bullish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 2.225. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 39.1.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLU, XLP, XLK, XLY, /ES, SPY, SPX, XLI, XLB, XLV, XLF and XLE respectively.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLU, XLP, XLK, SPY, SPX, /ES, XLY, XLI, XLF, XLB, XLV and XLE respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping upwards showing more gainers than losers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping upwards showing accumulation. Skew is at 115.37. Vix is at 18.98 and Vix futures 18.84.

The Week Ahead
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Internals are showing strength. Vix and Vix futures are below 19 which are still elevated. Skew is normal. The trade war between USA – China continues to be a millstone around the neck on the market. Bond is extremely overbought on the weekly chart which makes further upward move less likely. The prognosis for the coming week is that of a volatile market coming under selling pressure.

To YOUR wealth!

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