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Z5 Fri, 29 December 2023

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Z5 Wed, 27 December 2023

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Z5 Tue, 26 December 2023

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26 September 2019 – Waiting for the next move

Indices
Dow Transportation closed at 10409.03 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range is 75.98. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 50.4.

Dow Industrial gapped up and closed at 26891.12 with a bearish marubozu candle above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA and below its 8 EMA. Daily trading range – 211.23. Fractal Chaos Band – within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 53.6.

Russell 2000 closed at 1533.3261 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 19.611. Fractal Chaos Band – within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle – negative and falling. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 48.8.

Nasdaq 100 closed at 7771.9921 with a small bearish hammer candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 84.85. Fractal Chaos Band – crossed below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 49.2.

S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2977.62 with a smal bearish hammer candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 23.57. Fractal Chaos Band – crossed below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 52.6.

Metals and Commodities
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $56.54 per barrel with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 1.43. Fractal Chaos Band – below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 48.

Gold (/GC) closed at 1511.7 with a doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 12.4. Fractal Chaos Band – within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 50.2.

Commodities (DBC) ETF closed at 15.25 with a small bullish candle above its 50 SMA and below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.1499. Fractal Chaos Band – below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Neutral. RSI – 50.

Bonds
Bond futures (/ZB) closed at 162’02 with a bullish marubozu candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 1.3437. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and flat. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 51.9.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 87.17 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.2199. Fractal Chaos Band – within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 51.3.

Currency
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 99.207 with a bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.438. Fractal Chaos Band – above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Market direction – Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 60.5.


EUR/USD closed at 1.0918 with a bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.0058. Fractal Chaos Band – below its FCB lowerband. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 35.3.

USD/JPY closed at 107.80 with a doji candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Daily trading range – 0.5309. Fractal Chaos Band – within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and rising. Market direction – Weak UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 54.9.

Relative Strength – Sectors On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLU, XLP, /ES, SPX, XLI, XLK, SPY, XLF, XLB, XLY, XLE and XLV.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the S&P 500 ETFs are XLU, XLP, SPX, XLK, /ES, SPY, XLI, XLF, XLB, XLY, XLV and XLE.  

Market Internals
Market Sentiment – Slightly Bullish. Market Breadth – sloping downward showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis – sloping downwards and showing distribution. Skew – 117.51. Vix – 16.07 and Vix Futures – 17.70.   

The Week Ahead 
The market did not have much of a movement due to lack of catalyst. Market internals are showing weakness. Skew is normal. Vix is below 17 and Vix futures is below 18. US Dollar index is on an uptrend and gold and bond remains range trading. The prognosis is for a lack of buying and selling pressure to continue.

To Your Wealth!
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