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28 February 2020 – Weekly Review – Covid19 bites the market


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation ($DJT) closed at 9388.19 with a huge bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1781.78. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 32.6. It has exited its weekly Squeeze.    

Dow Industrial ($DJI) closed at 25409.36 with a ginormous bearish marubozu candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 4311.4. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 33.8.

Russell 2000 closed at 1476.431 with a ginormous bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and on its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 230.4022. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 36.4.       

Nasdaq 100 closed at 8461.8345 with a huge bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1312.8395. Fractal Chaos Band – Within its FCB upper and lower band. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction – Neutral. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 47.9.

S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2954.22 with a ginormous bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 481.9099. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 38.8.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $45.26 per barrel with a ginormous bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 9.61. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downwards. RSI – 32.6.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1587.3 with a big bearish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 127.7. Fractal Chaos Band – closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Short cycle – positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 61.3.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) gapped up and closed at 170’03 with a huge bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 5.875. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 70.3.         

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 86.04 with a ginormous bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 3.64. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Weak Downward. RSI – 38.6.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 98.127 with a ginormous bearish candle below its 8 EMA and above its 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1.678. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Short cycle – positive and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 51.4.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1025 with a ginormous bullish candle above its 8 EMA and below its 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0248. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed within its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and rising slope. Short cycle – negative and rising slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 48.4.   

USD/JPY closed at 108.04 with a ginormous bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 4.171. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Short cycle – positive and falling. Market direction:- Neutral. Momentum – Weak Upward. RSI – 46.7.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are /ES, XLK, XLP, SPY, SPX, XLV, XLY, XLB, XLU, XLI, XLF and XLE respectively.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLK, /ES, SPY, SPX, XLU, XLV, XLY, XLP, XLB, XLI, XLF and XLE respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 115.74. Vix is at 40.1 and Vix futures 17.05.

The Week Ahead
Market Internals are showing weakness. Skew is low indicating a rebound is likely. The indices have sold off the whole weak due to panic selling. High Yield bond saw panic selling as the market lost appetite for high risk. Gold sold off in sympathy with the general market. The prognosis is for a rebound as the issue that cause the selling is still there which is the fear of the spread of COVID19 and its potential impact on the economy. The prognosis is for volatility and selling pressure for the coming week.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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