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6 March 2020 – Weekly Review – Panic buying in bonds …. and gold


Indices (Weekly chart)
Dow Transportation ($DJT) closed at 8956.06 with a big bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1035.88. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 29.1.    

Dow Industrial ($DJI) closed at 25864.78 with a big low closing spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 1875.72. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 37.6.

Russell 2000 closed at 1449.2206 with a big spining top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 122.4754. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 34.4.       

Nasdaq 100 closed at 8530.3368 with a big spinning top doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA and above its 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 680.5527. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction – Weak DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 49.2.

S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 2972.37 with a big doji candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and above its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 235.18. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling. Short cycle Wave – negative and falling. Market direction – Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 40.1.

Metals and Commodities (Weekly charts)
WTI Crude oil futures (CL) closed at $41.57 per barrel with a huge bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 7.61. Fractal Chaos Band – Below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downwards. RSI – 29.

Gold futures (GC) closed at 1674.2 with a big bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 116.5. Fractal Chaos Band – closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 70.3.

Bonds (Weekly charts)
Bond futures (/ZB) gapped up and closed at 178’09 with a huge bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range was 11.5937. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising. Short cycle – positive and rising. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 77.7.

High Yield bond ETF (HYG) closed at 85.05 with a huge bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 3.1. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 33.

Currencies (Weekly charts)
The dollar index ($DXY) closed at 96.093 with a ginormous bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 2.4159. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – positive and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling slope. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 40.6.

EUR/USD closed at 1.1288 with a ginormous bullish candle above its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA and below its 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 0.0328. Fractal Chaos Band – Closed above its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and rising slope. Medium Cycle Wave – positive and rising slope. Short cycle – positive and rising slope. Market direction:- Strong UpTrend. Momentum – Strong Upward. RSI – 59.   

USD/JPY closed at 105.31 with a ginormous bearish candle below its 8 EMA, 21 EMA, 50 SMA, 200 SMA. Weekly trading range – 3.578. Fractal Chaos Band – closed below its FCB. Long Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Medium Cycle Wave – negative and falling slope. Short cycle – negative and falling. Market direction:- Strong DownTrend. Momentum – Strong Downward. RSI – 38.5.

Relative Strength – Sectors
On a 3-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLP, XLU, XLV, XLK, SPY, XLB, SPX, /ES, XLI, XLY, XLF and XLE respectively.

On a 12-monthly lookback, the relative strength order of the ETFs are XLU, XLP, XLK, XLV, SPY, SPX, /ES, XLY, XLB, XLI, XLF and XLE respectively.

Market Internals
Market Sentiment is bearish. Market Breadth is sloping downwards showing more losers than gainers. Volume Acc/Dis is sloping downwards showing distribution. Skew is at 126.08. Vix is at 41.94 and Vix futures 36.17.

The Week Ahead
Vix is extremely high and is showing extreme fear. But with Vix at 41, the indices is likely to rebound as it is also in an oversold position. Market Sentiment was bearish and market internals continue to show weakness. The prognosis is for a rebound in the indices in the coming week.

To Your Wealth!
Would you like to learn to trade stocks, Options or Futures? Drop us an email at jefftohch@gmail.com or call +6010 4343 948. If you have been an unsuccessful trader and need personal tutorship, we can provide you with personal coaching to take you to be a profitable trader.


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